Arkansas VS Missouri Preview
The Arkansas Razorbacks host the Missouri Tigers on November 29, 2025 in a NCAA matchup that pits a struggling Arkansas side against a ranked Missouri team looking to finish the regular season strong. The Tigers come in at 7-4 and ranked #22 nationally, while Arkansas limps to the finish line at 2-9 with only two wins through eleven games. This one matters for Missouri’s bowl positioning and pride for Arkansas.
Form and context heavily favor the visitors here. Missouri’s defense ranks 21st nationally, allowing just 19.6 points per game, while Arkansas sits 126th, hemorrhaging 34.1 points per contest. The Razorbacks are coming off a 15-point road loss to Texas, extending their miserable season. Missouri lost three of their last four, including an 11-point setback at Oklahoma, but the talent gap remains enormous.
Expect Missouri to control tempo and exploit Arkansas’s porous defense early. The Tigers should establish their ground game and lean on their defensive strength to suffocate a Razorbacks offense that has struggled all year. Early Arkansas VS Missouri game preview analysis and Arkansas VS Missouri betting odds reflect confidence in the visitors to cover a modest spread and assert dominance in this conference clash.
Key Factors for Arkansas VS Missouri
Missouri dominates the recent head-to-head series, leading 3-1 in the last four matchups and 3-1 against the spread in those same contests. In those four meetings, the Tigers have outscored Arkansas 122-96, averaging over 30 points per game while limiting the Razorbacks to 24. That offensive efficiency and defensive consistency give Missouri a clear blueprint for success in this rivalry.
The defensive gap is the story here. Missouri’s unit ranks among the nation’s best, while Arkansas has been torched all season long, allowing more than five touchdowns per game on average. The Tigers’ ability to generate pressure and limit explosive plays should overwhelm an Arkansas offense that has managed just two wins. Missouri’s 6-5 ATS record also suggests they handle spreads competently, while Arkansas sits at 4-7 ATS, failing to compete even with generous lines.
The situational edge tilts heavily toward the visitors. Eight of Arkansas’s eleven games have hit the over this year, a reflection of their defensive futility and high-scoring losses. Missouri’s disciplined approach and superior talent should allow them to control possession and dictate pace. The Arkansas VS Missouri betting forecast leans on these stark differences, while the Arkansas VS Missouri prediction hinges on Missouri’s ability to exploit every mismatch on both sides of the ball.
Recent Trends for Arkansas VS Missouri
Recent form paints a clear picture of two teams heading in different directions. Missouri has stumbled lately, dropping three of four, but those losses came against competitive opponents like Oklahoma. Arkansas has been blown out repeatedly, including last week’s 15-point defeat at Texas, and shows no signs of late-season improvement. The Tigers still carry momentum from their 7-4 overall record and national ranking, while the Razorbacks are simply playing out the string.
The head-to-head history strongly favors Missouri, both straight up and against the spread. In their last four meetings, the Tigers have dominated physically, averaging more yards, controlling time of possession, and forcing turnovers. Arkansas has struggled to generate consistent offense in this series, and their defensive issues have only worsened this season. Those patterns suggest Missouri knows how to attack Arkansas’s weaknesses and has done so repeatedly.
Momentum and habits converge to favor the Tigers here. Missouri’s 6-5 ATS mark shows they handle expectations reasonably well, while Arkansas’s 4-7 ATS record reflects consistent underperformance even with lowered expectations. The Arkansas VS Missouri matchup trends all point toward another Tigers victory, and the Arkansas VS Missouri betting insights suggest the spread offers value given Missouri’s historical dominance and current defensive superiority in this rivalry.
Our Prediction is Missouri -2.5
Missouri should cover the 2.5-point spread comfortably given their overwhelming defensive advantage and recent head-to-head dominance. The Tigers rank 21st in scoring defense, while Arkansas sits 126th, a gap of more than 14 points per game allowed. That chasm alone suggests Missouri can limit Arkansas offensively while generating enough scoring opportunities to win by at least a field goal, likely more.
The situational context reinforces this angle. Missouri leads the series 3-1 ATS in the last four meetings and has outscored Arkansas by 26 total points across those games. The Tigers’ defensive discipline and ability to control tempo should frustrate a Razorbacks offense that has been ineffective all season. Arkansas’s 2-9 record reflects a team that has been overmatched repeatedly, and nothing suggests that changes here against a ranked opponent.
We believe the outcome of the match will be Missouri -2.5. The Tigers have the defensive strength to shut down Arkansas and the offensive capability to score enough points to cover a short spread. With Missouri 3-1 ATS in this series and Arkansas failing to compete against quality opponents, the visitors should handle business and win by at least a touchdown, making the 2.5-point line an attractive proposition.
The betting relevance here is clear: Missouri’s defensive edge is a massive advantage that Arkansas cannot counter. The Razorbacks have allowed 34.1 points per game and shown no signs of improvement down the stretch. Missouri’s recent series dominance and superior talent level make this the clearest edge available in this Arkansas VS Missouri fixture. For bettors seeking Arkansas VS Missouri betting picks, the Tigers covering a modest spread offers strong value backed by form, history, and matchup dynamics.
