UAB VS South Florida Preview
The NCAA matchup between UAB and South Florida kicks off on Saturday, November 22, 2025 at 3:00 PM ET at Protective Stadium in Birmingham, Alabama. This clash pits a struggling UAB squad at 3-7 against a surging South Florida team standing at 7-3 and riding a high-powered offensive wave.
The Bulls enter as overwhelming favorites, with bookmakers setting the line at South Florida -21.5 and projecting a win probability exceeding 95%. The visitors boast the fifth-ranked scoring offense in FBS, averaging 41.6 points per game, while UAB’s defense ranks 134th nationally, surrendering 38.7 points per contest.
Expect South Florida to exploit UAB’s defensive vulnerabilities after the Blazers conceded 53 points and committed four turnovers against North Texas last week. Early market movement and UAB VS South Florida game preview analysis alongside UAB VS South Florida betting odds all point toward a dominant Bulls performance in Birmingham.
Key Factors for UAB VS South Florida
South Florida’s offensive firepower stands in stark contrast to UAB’s collapsing defense. The Bulls accumulated 556 yards in a narrow 41-38 loss to Navy, demonstrating explosive capability even in defeat. Meanwhile, UAB allowed 53 points and turned the ball over four times against North Texas, exposing critical weaknesses ahead of this matchup.
Quarterback play heavily favors the visitors, with South Florida’s Byrum Brown averaging 327 yards in his most recent outing. In contrast, UAB’s Jalen Kitna threw two interceptions against North Texas, contributing to the team’s 3-7 overall record. The offensive efficiency gap is glaring: South Florida ranks 5th nationally at 41.6 PPG versus UAB’s 73rd-ranked 26.8 PPG.
Against-the-spread performance tells a compelling story for UAB VS South Florida betting forecast purposes. South Florida sits at 6-3-1 ATS this season and boasts a 4-1 ATS record at home, while UAB struggles at 3-7 ATS with a dismal 1-4 ATS mark at home. The UAB VS South Florida prediction landscape clearly favors the Bulls covering the spread.
Recent Trends for UAB VS South Florida
Momentum decisively favors South Florida, whose offense has maintained elite production despite occasional defensive lapses allowing 25.9 points per game, ranked 77th. The Bulls’ ability to generate explosive plays and sustain drives contrasts sharply with UAB’s defensive collapse, which has allowed 24-plus points in every game this season.
The Over/Under is set at 69.5, reflecting expectations of high-scoring action driven primarily by South Florida’s attack. UAB has allowed 38.7 PPG, ranking 134th nationally, creating ideal conditions for the Bulls to exploit. Turnover differential looms large, with UAB’s four-turnover performance last week signaling continued ball-security issues under pressure.
The situational edge belongs entirely to the visitors, who have demonstrated consistent offensive execution and superior ATS reliability. UAB’s home struggles at 1-4 ATS compound their defensive deficiencies, setting up a favorable UAB VS South Florida matchup trends scenario. These UAB VS South Florida betting insights point unambiguously toward Bulls coverage.
Our Prediction is South Florida -21.5
South Florida should cover the 21.5-point spread comfortably given the overwhelming statistical and situational advantages. The Bulls’ elite 41.6 PPG offense faces a UAB defense ranked 134th nationally, creating an exploitable mismatch. Quarterback superiority with Byrum Brown’s 327-yard average against Jalen Kitna’s two-interception struggles tips the scales decisively.
The ATS trends strongly support this recommendation, with South Florida at 6-3-1 ATS overall and 4-1 at home, contrasting with UAB’s 3-7 ATS mark and 1-4 home record against the spread. UAB’s four turnovers and 53 points allowed last week signal deteriorating form, while South Florida’s 556-yard performance showcases offensive potency.
We believe the outcome of the match will be South Florida -21.5. The Bulls possess superior talent, momentum, and execution on both sides of the ball. UAB’s defensive collapse allowing 24-plus points in every game creates ideal conditions for South Florida to exploit matchups and control tempo throughout.
Backed by data on form, quarterback performance, and defensive rankings, this recommendation represents the most accurate and valuable call for this UAB VS South Florida matchup. The 95-plus percent win probability and scoring differential trends make the Bulls an excellent UAB VS South Florida betting picks option to cover the substantial spread in Birmingham.
