Texas State VS UL Monroe Preview
Texas State hosts UL Monroe on November 22, 2025 at UFCU Stadium in San Marcos for a 5:00 PM CST kickoff. This NCAA matchup presents a stark contrast between a home team averaging over 35 points per game and visitors stuck in a six-game losing streak. Expect clear skies and comfortable 75-degree conditions with minimal wind.
The Bobcats enter with offensive firepower and recent success against their Sun Belt opponent, while UL Monroe has struggled mightily to find the scoreboard in recent weeks. With no significant injury concerns for either side, this contest should unfold as expected with Texas State controlling proceedings from start to finish in front of their home crowd.
Early market action reflects the wide gap between these programs, with bettors eyeing the substantial spread and noting Texas State’s recent tendency toward high-scoring affairs. This Texas State VS UL Monroe game preview and examination of Texas State VS UL Monroe betting odds reveals a clear favorite in a matchup defined by offensive disparity and opposing trajectories entering the final weeks of the season.
Key Factors for Texas State VS UL Monroe
Texas State averages 35.3 points per game compared to UL Monroe’s anemic 15.8, establishing the fundamental offensive chasm. The Warhawks have lost six consecutive games and managed 14 or fewer points in four of their last five outings, signaling a collapse on both sides of the ball as the season winds down. Both squads report stable lineups with no major absences expected.
Weather conditions favor offensive football, with 75-degree temperatures, clear skies, and just 6mph wind creating an ideal environment for throwing and scoring. Texas State has dominated this series, winning four of the last five meetings, while UL Monroe has dropped 12 straight November games against non-AP-ranked opponents. The favorite has covered in six of the last seven UL Monroe contests, reinforcing the market’s reliability.
Against-the-spread metrics show UL Monroe at 2-7 ATS this season versus Texas State’s 3-6 ATS, though totals have gone OVER in four of Texas State’s last five games. This Texas State VS UL Monroe betting forecast must account for the home team’s scoring consistency and the visitors’ defensive vulnerabilities. The Texas State VS UL Monroe prediction landscape heavily favors the host in all major markets.
Recent Trends for Texas State VS UL Monroe
Historical momentum overwhelmingly favors Texas State in this matchup, having secured four victories in the last five encounters with UL Monroe. The Warhawks’ catastrophic November record against non-ranked opponents, extending to 12 consecutive losses, reveals a pattern of late-season collapses that bettors cannot ignore when evaluating this spot. Momentum clearly sits with the home side entering this contest.
The spread-covering trend for favorites in UL Monroe games provides additional confidence, with six covers in the last seven outings suggesting oddsmakers have accurately priced the Warhawks’ struggles. Texas State’s recent scoring surge, pushing totals OVER in four of five games, indicates an offense hitting stride at the perfect time. These patterns point toward a comfortable home victory with scoring potential on both the spread and total markets.
The Texas State VS UL Monroe matchup trends reveal structural advantages beyond simple win-loss records, incorporating situational factors like November performance and scoring consistency. These Texas State VS UL Monroe betting insights demonstrate why sharp money gravitates toward the home favorite in what appears to be a mismatch between programs trending in opposite directions as the regular season concludes.
Our Prediction is Texas State -17.5 spread
Texas State’s 19.5-point scoring advantage per game provides the foundation for this forecast, supported by UL Monroe’s six-game losing streak and offensive futility. The home environment at UFCU Stadium adds value, particularly against opponents with documented struggles in November road games. Perfect weather removes any variables that might limit the Bobcats’ offensive execution or benefit the undermanned visitors seeking an upset.
The historical dominance in this series combines with current form disparities to justify confidence in a double-digit margin. UL Monroe’s inability to score consistently, managing 14 or fewer points in most recent games, suggests they lack the firepower to keep pace even if their defense holds. Texas State should control possession and tempo, methodically building a lead that exceeds the spread by kickoff time.
We believe the outcome of the match will be Texas State covering -17.5 spread comfortably against overmatched opposition. The confluence of offensive production, defensive stability, home-field advantage, and historical precedent makes this among the clearest calls of the weekend slate. Backed by data on form, scoring trends, and situational performance, this recommendation represents the most accurate call for this Texas State VS UL Monroe contest. This Texas State VS UL Monroe betting picks analysis supports laying the points with the superior home team.
