Tennessee VS Vanderbilt Preview
No. 18 Tennessee (8-3) hosts No. 12 Vanderbilt (9-2) on November 29, 2025, at 3:30 p.m. ET inside Neyland Stadium in Knoxville, Tennessee. This in-state rivalry carries playoff implications and showcases two of the nation’s most prolific passing attacks, with Tennessee ranking 4th nationally in passing yards per game and Vanderbilt sitting 16th.
Tennessee enters having lost three of its last five games, while Vanderbilt arrives on a nine-game winning streak that has vaulted the Commodores to a 9-2 record. The Volunteers own a 4-0 advantage in the last four meetings, but Vanderbilt’s remarkable 9-2 ATS record this season suggests they’ve been undervalued by the market all year long.
Both teams feature explosive aerial attacks, but Tennessee’s defense allows 27.3 points per game (84th nationally), while Vanderbilt’s unit surrenders just 21.7 PPG (43rd). With the implied score sitting at Tennessee 34, Vanderbilt 32, expect a tightly contested affair in this Tennessee VS Vanderbilt game preview that challenges the Tennessee VS Vanderbilt betting odds favoring the home side by just 2.5 points.
Key Factors for Tennessee VS Vanderbilt
Vanderbilt quarterback Diego Pavia has orchestrated the Commodores’ surge with 2,924 passing yards, 26 touchdowns, and just six interceptions, adding 661 rushing yards and eight rushing scores. His dual-threat ability poses serious matchup problems for Tennessee’s porous defense, which has struggled to contain mobile quarterbacks and multi-dimensional offenses throughout the season.
Tennessee holds a 59.8% implied win probability based on the spread, but Vanderbilt’s 9-2 ATS mark dwarfs Tennessee’s 5-6 ATS performance. The Commodores have consistently exceeded expectations, while the Volunteers have failed to cover in more than half their games. Home field at Neyland Stadium remains Tennessee’s strongest edge, but recent form tells a contrasting story.
The Over/Under line sits at 65.5 points, yet Vanderbilt’s defense has been the more reliable unit down the stretch. Tennessee’s offense can move the ball through the air, but inconsistency has plagued their recent performances. This Tennessee VS Vanderbilt betting forecast hinges on whether the Volunteers can rediscover their early-season form, making this Tennessee VS Vanderbilt prediction particularly challenging given the divergent trajectories.
Recent Trends for Tennessee VS Vanderbilt
Tennessee’s 2-3 record over its last five games reveals a team searching for answers as the season winds down. Meanwhile, Vanderbilt’s nine-game winning streak represents one of the most impressive turnarounds in college football, fueled by Pavia’s emergence and a defense that has tightened considerably since September. The historical 4-0 head-to-head edge favors Tennessee, but momentum clearly belongs to the visitors.
The Over has hit in four of Tennessee’s last six home games, suggesting Neyland Stadium has hosted high-scoring affairs recently. However, Vanderbilt’s defensive improvements and Tennessee’s offensive inconsistency create uncertainty around the total. The Commodores’ ability to control tempo and limit possessions through Pavia’s dual-threat skill set could dictate a lower-scoring contest than Tennessee’s home trends suggest.
Against-the-spread performance tells the clearest story heading into this rivalry clash. Vanderbilt has covered in 82% of its games, while Tennessee has failed to meet expectations more often than not. These Tennessee VS Vanderbilt matchup trends suggest the line may still undervalue the surging Commodores, providing crucial Tennessee VS Vanderbilt betting insights for handicappers evaluating this fixture.
Our Prediction is Tennessee -2.5 spread; Under 65.5 points
Tennessee’s home-field advantage at Neyland Stadium and its 4-0 dominance in recent meetings provide just enough edge to back the small 2.5-point spread. The Volunteers understand the stakes of this rivalry game and should elevate their performance in front of a raucous home crowd desperate to see them bounce back from their recent struggles and secure a statement victory.
However, Vanderbilt’s superior defensive metrics and Pavia’s ability to control the game tempo point toward a lower-scoring affair than many expect. While both offenses rank among the nation’s passing leaders, the Commodores’ defense allows six fewer points per game than Tennessee’s leaky unit. Expect a grinding, possession-based contest that favors the Under despite Tennessee’s recent home trends leaning toward high totals.
We believe the outcome of the match will be Tennessee -2.5 spread; Under 65.5 points. The Volunteers scrape out a narrow home victory in a tight, defensive-minded battle that keeps Vanderbilt within striking distance throughout. Tennessee’s pride in this rivalry and home-field environment provide the slim margin needed to cover the short spread in a game that stays comfortably under the inflated total.
Vanderbilt’s nine-game winning streak ends, but not before challenging Tennessee in every phase. The Commodores’ ATS excellence and Pavia’s playmaking ensure they stay competitive, but Tennessee’s historical dominance in this series ultimately prevails. This represents the clearest edge in the Tennessee VS Vanderbilt fixture, combining situational motivation with defensive trends that favor a lower-scoring outcome. Consider these Tennessee VS Vanderbilt betting picks as the most balanced approach to a rivalry game with contrasting momentum.
