Mississippi State VS Ole Miss Preview
The Egg Bowl returns to Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field in Starkville, Mississippi, on Friday, November 28, 2025, at 12:00 PM ET. No. 6 Ole Miss (10-1) travels to face Mississippi State (5-6) in the season-defining rivalry game. Despite the talent gap, this fixture carries explosive emotion and unpredictable energy that can reshape expectations in an instant.
Ole Miss enters as a heavy favorite with momentum, ranking, and a playoff berth on the line. Mississippi State, however, has proven resilient at home and thrives in the underdog role. The Rebels need a statement win to solidify their postseason standing, but the Bulldogs have nothing to lose and everything to gain by spoiling their rival’s campaign.
Expect a physical contest with Ole Miss leaning on its explosive ground attack and Mississippi State seeking chaos through defensive pressure and opportunistic play. Early tempo and turnover margin will shape the outcome in this Mississippi State VS Ole Miss game preview, where Mississippi State VS Ole Miss betting odds reflect the talent disparity but not the rivalry intensity.
Key Factors for Mississippi State VS Ole Miss
Ole Miss has dominated recent meetings, winning three of the last four and outscoring Mississippi State 96-66 over that span. Yet the Bulldogs boast an 8-3 ATS record this season and a remarkable 5-1 ATS mark at home. The underdog has also won three of Ole Miss’ last four games at Davis Wade Stadium, suggesting the venue provides a genuine edge.
The rushing matchup tilts decisively toward Ole Miss. Kewan Lacy has compiled 1,136 yards and 19 touchdowns, dwarfing Mississippi State’s Fluff Bothwell, who has managed 559 yards and six scores. Defensively, Ole Miss allows just 20.2 points per game (29th nationally), while the Bulldogs surrender 28.4 (92nd). TJ Dottery anchors Ole Miss with 68 tackles; Jahron Manning leads Mississippi State with 76.
The Rebels carry a 73.8% implied probability to win based on moneyline pricing, and consensus models project a 35-24 Ole Miss victory. The Over/Under sits at 62.5 points, reflecting expectations of offensive production despite Mississippi State’s defensive vulnerabilities. These elements feed directly into the Mississippi State VS Ole Miss betting forecast and shape the core Mississippi State VS Ole Miss prediction logic around both the spread and total.
Recent Trends for Mississippi State VS Ole Miss
Ole Miss arrives with confidence after winning 10 of 11 games, but the lone blemish exposes vulnerability under pressure. Mississippi State has managed inconsistent results, yet its home ATS success and ability to keep games competitive suggest it can frustrate superior opponents. The Bulldogs’ recent performances show they tighten up defensively when emotion runs high, particularly in rivalry settings.
Momentum favors Ole Miss on paper, but historical patterns at Davis Wade Stadium reveal a different story. The Rebels have struggled to cover in hostile environments, and Mississippi State’s ability to keep games within the number has been a season-long trend. The defensive gap between the two sides remains significant, but rivalry dynamics often neutralize statistical advantages.
These recurring patterns suggest that while Ole Miss should control possession and dictate tempo, Mississippi State has the blueprint to stay within striking distance. The Mississippi State VS Ole Miss matchup trends point to a competitive first half before Ole Miss pulls away. Understanding these Mississippi State VS Ole Miss betting insights helps frame realistic expectations for both the spread and pace of play.
Our Prediction is Ole Miss -7 (-109)
Ole Miss possesses superior talent, depth, and motivation to cover the spread. The Rebels’ ground game, led by Kewan Lacy’s explosive production, will exploit Mississippi State’s porous run defense. With 73.8% implied win probability, Ole Miss should control possession and dictate tempo, limiting the Bulldogs’ offensive opportunities. The defensive gap alone justifies confidence in the Rebels to win by multiple scores.
Mississippi State’s home ATS success merits caution, but the Egg Bowl’s emotional intensity cuts both ways. Ole Miss has more to lose and will play with urgency, particularly with playoff implications looming. The Bulldogs’ 5-6 record reflects inconsistency, and their offensive limitations, especially in the rushing attack, leave them vulnerable to a physical Rebels defense that allows just over 20 points per game.
We believe the outcome of the match will be Ole Miss -7 (-109). The spread reflects a realistic margin given the talent disparity, and Ole Miss should pull away in the second half as depth becomes a factor. Rivalry games can be unpredictable, but the Rebels’ rushing dominance and defensive efficiency provide the clearest path to a comfortable victory that covers the number.
The betting edge lies in Ole Miss’ ability to control line of scrimmage and dictate tempo. Kewan Lacy’s 19 rushing touchdowns highlight the Rebels’ red zone efficiency, while Mississippi State’s defensive struggles suggest they’ll struggle to contain explosive plays. This situational advantage, combined with Ole Miss’ need for a statement win, makes the spread the most compelling angle in this Mississippi State VS Ole Miss fixture. The Mississippi State VS Ole Miss betting picks clearly favor the road favorite to deliver a decisive performance in Starkville.
