Michigan VS Ohio State Preview
The rivalry that defines Michigan VS Ohio State returns to Michigan Stadium in Ann Arbor on Saturday, November 29, 2025, at 12:00 PM ET. This edition carries extra weight as top-ranked Ohio State (11-0) visits 15th-ranked Michigan (9-2) in a game loaded with playoff stakes and historical tension.
The Buckeyes arrive undefeated but carry the burden of five consecutive failures in this fixture, while Michigan enters riding a four-game win streak despite missing both starting and backup running backs. Head coach Ryan Day is 1-4 against Michigan, and the pressure to break through in Ann Arbor has never been higher.
Expect a tense, physical contest where Ohio State’s elite defense meets Michigan’s hobbled rushing attack. The spread sits at Ohio State -10.5, reflecting both the talent gap and the historical unpredictability of this rivalry. This Michigan VS Ohio State game preview examines how the Michigan VS Ohio State betting odds reflect contrasting momentum and situational depth.
Key Factors for Michigan VS Ohio State
Ohio State has covered nine of 11 games this season (9-2 ATS), while Michigan sits at 4-7 ATS, the worst among top FBS programs. The Buckeyes boast the nation’s number one scoring defense, allowing just 7.6 points per game, a staggering edge over Michigan’s 17.9 PPG allowed, ranked 15th nationally.
Michigan is missing both starting RB Justice Haynes and backup Jordan Marshall, forcing the Wolverines to rely on unproven depth against a defensive front that has dominated all season. Ohio State’s wide receivers Carnell Tate and Jeremiah Smith are dealing with injuries but are expected to play, maintaining the offensive firepower that has carried the Buckeyes through an undefeated campaign.
Michigan is 5-0 at home this season and undefeated in its last five overall (4-1), creating a formidable environment despite the personnel setbacks. The Michigan VS Ohio State betting forecast must account for home-field advantage and the psychological weight on Ryan Day, who has not won in Ann Arbor since 2019. This Michigan VS Ohio State prediction hinges on whether talent overcomes history and emotion.
Recent Trends for Michigan VS Ohio State
Ohio State has not won in Ann Arbor since 2019, a drought that defines Ryan Day’s tenure and adds layers of pressure to this matchup. Michigan’s recent momentum includes four straight wins and a perfect home record, suggesting the Wolverines know how to navigate adversity, even without their top two running backs available for this contest.
The OVER has hit in just four of Ohio State’s 11 games, reflecting a defensive identity that has suffocated opponents all year. Michigan’s 4-7 ATS record signals consistent struggles to meet inflated expectations, a trend that becomes critical when evaluating whether the Wolverines can cover as double-digit home underdogs in this emotional rivalry.
Recent form and situational patterns favor Ohio State’s ability to impose its will, but the historical struggles in this building create uncertainty. The Michigan VS Ohio State matchup trends reveal a collision between statistical dominance and psychological roadblocks. These Michigan VS Ohio State betting insights point to a game where talent must finally overcome the ghosts of past failures.
Our Prediction is Ohio State -10.5
Ohio State’s 9-2 ATS record and number one scoring defense provide the technical foundation for backing the Buckeyes to cover double digits. Michigan’s missing running backs strip away the ground game that has defined its identity, forcing an offense to operate outside its comfort zone against a defense that allows fewer than eight points per game.
Despite the historical struggles in Ann Arbor, Ohio State’s talent advantage is simply too vast this season. The Buckeyes have covered spreads consistently all year, and Michigan’s 4-7 ATS mark underscores a team that repeatedly fails to meet expectations. The emotional narrative around Ryan Day’s record in this rivalry is legitimate, but the depth chart disparity at running back tilts the field decisively.
We believe the outcome of the match will be Ohio State -10.5. The Buckeyes’ defensive dominance, combined with Michigan’s inability to execute its offensive identity without Justice Haynes and Jordan Marshall, creates a clear path to a convincing road victory. This is the year Ohio State breaks through in Ann Arbor, and the margin reflects that superior talent finally overcomes situational obstacles.
Michigan’s home environment and recent form provide resistance, but not enough to prevent a double-digit defeat. The combination of elite pass rush, a secondary that has dominated all season, and Michigan’s forced pivot away from its ground game aligns perfectly with Ohio State’s strengths. This Michigan VS Ohio State betting picks analysis points to the Buckeyes covering as the highest-value play in a rivalry game that finally bends to talent over history.
