Miami (OH) VS Ball State Preview
Miami (OH) hosts Ball State on November 29, 2025, at 12:00 PM EST at Fred C. Yager Stadium in Oxford, OH. This NCAA regular-season finale carries significant weight for the RedHawks, who are looking to lock down a winning record at home. Ball State arrives on the road winless as underdogs, while Miami has been dominant when favored.
The RedHawks enter at 6-5 with six straight victories as favorites, showcasing strong situational discipline. Ball State sits at 4-7 and has lost three of its last four, failing to generate momentum late in the year. The Cardinals are 0-5 as moneyline underdogs on the road this season, a glaring red flag for bettors considering backing the visitor.
Expect Miami to control tempo through its ground game and exploit defensive lapses from a Ball State unit allowing over 31 points per contest. The Miami (OH) VS Ball State game preview points to a comfortable home victory, with Miami (OH) VS Ball State betting odds heavily favoring the RedHawks at a significant spread.
Key Factors for Miami (OH) VS Ball State
Ball State has been unable to win on the road as an underdog, posting an 0-5 record in that role this season. Miami counters with a perfect 6-0 mark as a moneyline favorite, demonstrating consistent execution when expected to win. The quarterback matchup tilts toward Miami, as Dequan Finn completes 58.6% with nine touchdowns and six interceptions compared to Kiael Kelly’s 55.8% rate with an 8-8 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
Ball State has dropped three of its last four games and carries a dreadful 0-5 away underdog record into Oxford. Miami has won six of its last eight, building confidence and cohesion. Defensive disparities are stark: Ball State surrenders 31.3 points per game while Miami allows just 23.9, a nearly eight-point gap that reflects unit quality and scheme execution.
The RedHawks average 167.9 rushing yards per game compared to Ball State’s 150.1, giving Miami an edge in controlling possession and clock. These elements shape the Miami (OH) VS Ball State betting forecast and support the Miami (OH) VS Ball State prediction that the home side will impose its will throughout four quarters.
Recent Trends for Miami (OH) VS Ball State
Ball State is 0-9 in its last nine road games against non-AP-ranked teams, a damning stretch that underscores chronic away struggles. Miami boasts a 16-0 record in its last 16 games as a favorite, a run that reflects both talent and situational dominance. The RedHawks have covered the spread in their last seven games as favorites, rewarding backers consistently.
Ball State has failed to cover in three of its last four November games as an underdog, suggesting late-season fatigue or motivation issues. Momentum clearly favors Miami, which has turned home advantage into a fortress this season. Defensive metrics further tilt the scales: Miami’s 23.9 points allowed per game versus Ball State’s 31.3 reveals a unit gap too wide to ignore.
These patterns feed directly into market expectations, with sharps backing Miami’s consistency and home strength. The Miami (OH) VS Ball State matchup trends and Miami (OH) VS Ball State betting insights confirm that situational edges and recent form align heavily in favor of the RedHawks covering a sizable number.
Our Prediction is Miami (OH) -17.5
Miami’s perfect 6-0 record as a favorite and 16-0 run in the last 16 games in that role provide overwhelming situational evidence. Ball State’s 0-5 road underdog record and 0-9 mark in recent away games against non-ranked foes remove any ambiguity. The quarterback edge, defensive gap, and rushing advantage all support a comfortable home victory by multiple scores.
Miami has covered seven straight as a favorite, while Ball State has failed to cover in three of four recent November underdog spots. The Cardinals lack the firepower to stay within three touchdowns against a disciplined RedHawks squad playing its finale at home. Defensive disparity of 7.4 points per game allowed translates directly to scoreboard separation.
We believe the outcome of the match will be Miami (OH) -17.5. The RedHawks’ proven ability to dominate as favorites, combined with Ball State’s chronic road failures, make this spread a solid investment. Situational trends, quarterback play, and defensive metrics all converge on a decisive home win that clears the posted number with room to spare.
Miami’s rushing attack and defensive discipline should control this game from start to finish, exploiting Ball State’s struggles on both sides of the ball. Form, injuries, and late-season motivation all favor the home side in this Miami (OH) VS Ball State matchup. This represents the clearest edge available, making Miami (OH) VS Ball State betting picks straightforward for backers seeking value on a dominant home favorite.
