World Series Picks, Game 6: Cardinals at Red Sox

It’s all on the line tonight as the St. Louis Cardinals fight to stay alive against Boston

 

The Boston Red Sox have already anointed Big Papi as the team’s World Series MVP but there is still at least a game to play before the celebration can begin. Greg Dempson has handicapped the game and offers his World Series prediction as the first of this week’s free picks.

 

GAME 6, ST. LOUIS at BOSTON

Starters for tonight’s game are Michael Wacha (4-0, 1.00 ERA) and John Lackey (2-1, 3.26 ERA) and the Bo-Sox are fetching anywhere between -115 and -120 from online sports betting shops. Jim Joyce is behind home plate for Game 6 and his last 12 games in Beantown have generated a 9-3 record for the home side with totals going 3-8-1 to the “Under”. In Interleague games Joyce has called 12 overs, 20 unders and 3 pushes the last while and we saw what Bill Miller could do to the strike zone in Game 5 of this series.

 

The total for tonight’s game is 3.5 with “juice” on the under at -120 and my play is based on the following systems along with some historical data. Lackey has been a big under pitcher at home this season with 11 unders his past 15 starts and Wacha’s been stingier than a Grinch on Christmas. Wacha’s only given up 31 earned runs in 81 innings of work with an impressive 2.22 earned run average and 0.988 WHIP.

 

[quote_text color=”#000000″ text_color=”#ffffff”]Starters whose WHIP is lower than 1.000 over the course of three starts are 62-percent likely to stay under (63-104 O/U) since 2008 with a posted total of 7 runs or less[/quote_text]

 

It’s an uphill battle for the Cards and they’ll need a huge start from Wacha but other than Ortiz (.733 avg) the Sox lineup has not looked World Class at times. Joyce is a Sox fan and the recent trend is 2-5-1 O/U with Interleague totals less than 8 going 2-11-3 or 85-percent to the under since 2004.

For tonight’s game my free play is on the Cards and Bo-Sox to play UNDER 3.5 runs through the first five innings

 

Greg Dempson’s free plays at Pick Sixty are 10-2 (+8.25 units) all-time!