The Las Vegas Golden Knights are up 3-1 in their Western Conference series against the Winnipeg Jets. Vegas goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury has stifled the Jets and the veteran tender now holds a 11-3 record in the 2018 NHL Playoffs with a 1.72 goals against average and .945 save percentage.
Vegas at Winnipeg -150 and O/U 6
The Jets have finished with two goals or less in five of seven meetings with the Knights overall. Playoff home faves that have struggled to score against an opponent like this can win 56% of the time with an avg 2.6 to 2.3 goals, but there is little value on the inflated line.
The Jets are 10-0 this season at home off a road loss and 19-1 at home when seeking revenge from a road loss. Access that trend with this NHL SDQL code from the Sports Database.
NHL SDQL Trend Set
Playoff teams seeking revenge from a 1-goal loss are 54% in Sports Database history (DBH). When the total is O/U 6 or more, the home team is 5-2 straight up.
The Jets fought to a 3-2 loss in Game 4 of this series and that brings a couple of our NHL playoff systems into play. Home teams off a close road loss are 59% overall and Second and Third Round teams are the strongest WP in this profile. The updated record is 37-17 SU, or 69-percent. Game 5 is the second game “live” in this year’s hot spot. The first was WPG over NSH, 7-4. The avg line of -144 makes today’s -150 seem a tad high but the 19% ROI leaves a bit of room. Also note that legitimate faves of -115 or more are 33-9 (.786 WP) and riding a 15-2 hot streak since 2014.
NHL Best Bet
We lost a 2-unit play on the road dog Jets in Game 4 but are back at the plate today. Call it a chase, call it a homer play, but these Jets are not the type of team to back down this easy. When trailing by two or more games in a series, play ON any home team beyond the first round. This NHL SDQL angle is 39-19 in DBH and it is currently riding a nine-game win streak. I’ve split my wager in this game into two plays:
1. Take the Jets -150 on the money line ***Best Bet***
2. Take the Jets -1 goal at +119