Week 9 NFL Trends with Benefits: Colts at Packers

Top trends and sports betting tips from Sunday’s late game between the Indianapolis Colts and Green Bay Packers

Andrew Luck and Aaron Rodgers hookup for an interconference game Sunday and we have SDQL trends and systems “live” on both the side and total.


Line: Packers -7 and O/U 53.5

This game was starting to show a CFL-type total Saturday when it peaked at 54.5 but it has since come back a point or two, depending on your sportsbook. Luck’s recent record as an outdoor road dog is 3-6 ATS and he’s been outscored 33-20 on average, right inline with the common number.

The Packers offense is travelling just under 14 yards per point, sixth best in the league, but their D has really been the story of this season. Ranked 7th overall, the Packers D are allowing 20.8 points per game at home and their ‘opponent yards per point’ ranking is top 10 in the league at 14.4. With numbers like that, big home faves are a good bet to win straight-up but their recent ATS record in high total games is just 14-26-1 ATS. The average line in those 41 games was -8.1 and the home side was winning straight-up by 6.5 PPG. Totals in this scenario went 15-26 O/U and although these are two perennial powerhouses on offense, there’s value on this game staying under.

The Colts are 2-4 ATS in their past six road games vs. teams that convert more than 40-percent of their drives into points and past four-straight games stayed under. The Packers rank second only to Atlanta in drive conversion rate (50-percent) and between Green Bay’s long time of possession and stout defense, the Colts are not going to have much opportunity for scoring.

Vontae Davis and Clay Matthews are likely to start but WR Randall Cobb is doubtful with a hamstring. Team totals for this game are 23.5 and 31 and I’m projecting  24-28 points for Green Bay and only 21 for the Colts. Either way, the total seems too high to me.

Pick Sixty Trend Tips: Take the Colts – Packers UNDER

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