Week 9 NFL Totally Covered: Packers at Patriots

Our Week 9 NFL Over/Under reports focuses on the Sunday Night Football game between the Green Bay Packers and New England Patriots!

By Jarvis Simes

When Aaron Rodgers retires he’ll be able to write his own ticket in terms of post-football work. Broadcasting, analysis, used car salesman — whatever he wants. If he just wants to market merchandise with his famous ‘Relax’ statement, that will work too, and if he can get his team to buy into it at this stage of 2018, the guy could sell ice to an eskimo.

packers at patriots picks

At 3-3-1, the Packers have little time to relax in the tough NFC North

Green Bay lost 29-27 at Los Angeles last week and all of us were robbed of getting to see one of A-Rod’s vintage fourth quarter comebacks when Ty Montgomery fumbled a kick return just before the two-minute warning. In a page out of Bill Belichick’s coaching handbook, Packers HC Mike McCarthy benched Montgomery for the rest of his life. In a show of oneupmanship, McCarthy then banished Montgomery from Lambeau Field for life, trading him to the Baltimore Ravens for next to nothing.

Green Bay is now at 3-3-1 SU and on the road for a second-straight week, getting points in Foxboro. My numbers lean to the Patriots covering ATS but it is a small lean. For a top play, I’m on the total.

NFL Over/Under Odds: 56.5

Each of these teams is averaging more than 66 plays per game on the season. It’s only a one-year trend, but the latest run for two teams hitting 6’s across the board is 3-9 O/U. Green Bay was held to 52 plays last week in Los Angeles and when an offense like this is on the road with a total greater than 45, the latest record is 1 over and 9 unders. Here is a chart from the best Sports Database on the net, showing the list of games.

SDQL Text:

tA(OFPL) > 66 and oA(OFPL) > 66 and A and p:OFPL < 57 and total > 45

Bill Belichick’s record when coming home off a road win is 63-10 SU and 46-24-3 ATS. He and Tom Brady are like a couple of psychopaths when it comes to scoring and believe me, it took a lot to bet “Under” with these two teams. I just think this line is too high. There are injury concerns on each side. Gronk is hurting for New England and each team’s O-Line is banged up. Three of the Packers’ top four targets are on the injury report and sure, this could just be a classic chess match between Belichick and McCarthy, pretending everyone is hurt, but there are systems backing up this play.

New England is averaging 29.9 points and 382 total yards per game. Non-conference home faves like this are 11-28 O/U when coming home off a road win. The latest run is 2-16-2 O/U and totals greater than 50 are 0-6 O/U.


The Pats are synonymous with winning big football games and they have cover-machines since the internet was invented. Home faves fitting one of my profiles for New England are 0-4 O/U this season and 18-39 O/U since 2013. High totals like this are on a 1-11 O/U run. This should be a great matchup and it could turn into a huck-fest by the fourth quarter but hopefully when the dust settles, we are on the low side.
Packers at Patriots Prediction: Take the Under 56.5 points

Totally Covered is written by Jarvis Simes, lead handicapper at Pick Sixty Sports. Jarvis spent years working with Winner’s Edge, focusing on NHL and pro football. A hardcore number cruncher, Jarvis is a certified SDQL Master and shares information @PickSixtySports as well as Killer Sports!