We’re off to a winning start this week with Carolina and today’s NFL feature looks at our top games for Week 8 including a Best Bet from the Atlanta Falcons and Arizona Cardinals.
As the NFL season hits the midway point it seems like a good time to do some housekeeping, update our record for NFL picks and offer a trends, betting systems and early predictions for the Sunday and Monday night games which we’ve already bet. The Thursday night game between the Carolina Panthers and Tampa Bay Bucs went just as planned and we cashed two tickets on the road fave ATS and the Panthers Team Total “Over” 23. Those early week games have been on a very nice run for us in 2013 and while we don’t bet every game, our five posted picks are a perfect 5-0 against the number.
THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL LEDGER
Here is a rundown of our posted picks for early week games thus far in 2013 and please excuse the short form for team name and which online sportsbook we used. Keeping strict ledgers is one of the most important sports betting practices you will ever learn. They don’t have to be pretty, just accurate. It’s also a good idea to have plenty of ‘outs’ to make your bets. We don’t have ties to any particular sportsbook and will always try to promote the shop with the best available odds.
1. Wk 2-13: NE at NYJ UN 44, 550-500 at sin; Pats won 13-10 – Winner 1-0, +500
2. Wk 4-13: SF at STL UN 21, first-half, 550-500 at sin; Niners led 14-3 – Winner 2-0, +1,000
3. Wk 7-13: SEA -6.5 -105, 1,050-1,000 at 5D; Hawks won 34-22 – 2-unit Winner 3-0, +2,000
4. Wk 8-13: CAR -6 at TB (2 picks): Panthers (sin) and Panthers TT OVER 23 (G); Panthers won 31-13 – Winner – Winner
Updated Record: 5-0, +4,000
Note: 1 unit = $500, ‘sin’ = Sports Interaction, ‘5D’ = 5 Dimes and ‘G’ = The Greek
Chirper’s Corner NHL Picks are 3-0 this season with Saturday Best Bets – Read tonight’s play here!
TOTALLY COVERED – WEEK 8
If you’ve had a chance to read the KillerSports.com NFL Report this season you already know that Pick Sixty’s lead handicapper Jarvis Simes contributes a weekly column called Totally Covered. The idea took off in 2006 when Jarvis was part of the editorial team at Winner’s Edge and the idea was to focus on game-specific trends and systems with Over/Under betting concepts for readers to watch out for. In 2010 the company went online and ‘TC’ became one of our hottest weekly features. In its first two seasons, Totally Covered went 21-11 (66-percent) and 30-13 (70-percent) for a combined record of 51-24 (68-percent)!
This week’s TC focused on three NFL primetime matchups with systems supporting plays on Carolina TT OVER 23.5, the Vikings Team Total to stay UNDER 18.5 points and the Monday night game to stay UNDER and/or the Rams TT to stay UNDER 16 points.
We’ve also written an Over/Under betting feature for Week 8’s divisional rematch between the New York Giants and Philadelphia Eagles you might find interesting.
SDQL – TRENDS WITH BENEFITS!
Our NFL Trends with Benefits concept started in Week 3 of the 2013 season, focusing primarily on the Sunday late games. Not all of the trends will constitute a play but we try to offer insight on as many games as possible and highlight the strongest play for each week. Our first four picks are 3-1 and here’s an early tip on a line that’s moving.
ATLANTA at ARIZONA (-2.5, O/U 45.5)
This total on this game opened at 44.5 and the best line on the board right now belongs to Pinnacle Sports (others have moved as high as 46.5). The “Over” looks like a popular play, one sports betting site reporting 83-percent action on the high side and perhaps Joe Public is onto something. Click this link for a system that has produced 20-straight overs involving teams who have not benefitted from a lot of turnovers this season (Atlanta is 28th in the league at 0.8 takeaways per game):
wins = 2 and losses = 4 and tS(o:TO) < 7 and (p:W or pp:W or ppp:W or pppp:W) and line >= -7
Other than a pair of duds at New Orleans and Tampa Bay the Cards are putting up decent points (23 PPG at home). The problem is they have faced stiff competition the past two weeks (Niners, Seahawks) and the Falcons have thrived on teams in this spot, covering 12-straight against opponents off back-to-back losses. There is little room left for error with either of these clubs and we expect both teams to finish north of 20 points on the scoreboard. Our suggestion is to by this total today at -118 to get it down to 45. With 21 points each, the worst you could do is push.
Best Bet: Take the Falcons and Cards OVER