Our Week 7 CFL picks focus on the total between the Toronto Argonauts and Winnipeg Blue Bombers.
Winnipeg took the first half of this home and home 38-20 and has won four of the past five meetings. The Bombers are 5-0 ATS in those matchups and this double-digit line is just a half-p shy of their steepest pointspread vs. the Argos in Sports Database history.
WEEK 7 CFL PICKS: ARGOS AT BOMBERS
The Argos are 1-4 SU and have not scored more than 20 points in any of their five games. The Bombers have allowed more than 20 points in two of six games, but the opponents in those given weeks (Eskies, Ti-Cats) are each averaging at least a touchdown more per game than Toronto (SDQL: tA(points) @ team and season=2018).
Toronto cannot consistently rush the football, averaging just 69.4 RYPG. The Bombers on the other hand, lead the league with 173.2 RYPG and that margin is disparaging to say the least. When the total was 51 or greater, only eight previous CFL teams have held such an advantage in rushing yards and seven of those eight games stayed under the total by an average 10.2 PPG.
Much of the attention surrounding Winnipeg’s run game early in the year was being given to QB Chris Streveler. The 98 rush yards he contributed to the Bombers’ total 245 in Week 2 at Montreal explain that, but the Big Blue continue to pound the rock with Matt Nichols under center.
Week 4 vs. BC: Bombers RY = 152
Week 5 at BC: Bombers RY = 187
Week 6 at TOR: Bombers RY = 184
With a bye week on-deck, look for Winnipeg to stick with what works. Winnipeg needs this win to move above .500. While I expect a straight up win, I’m more interested in the total for this matchup than the side.
Week 7 CFL Picks: Take the Argos at Bombers game to stay UNDER 53.5 points
Some additional trends supporting our Week 7 CFL picks, with data provided by the SDQL at Sports Database!
CFL road dogs off a home dog loss where they rushed for fewer than 70 yards are 5-10 O/U with revenge. When the total is between 51 and 57, the record is 0-8 O/U.
Road teams off a game where they committed more than two turnovers are 74-120-2 O/U. Road dogs are a 62% play on the UNDER and double-digit road dogs are 44-80-1 O/U. When the posted total was 50 points or higher in this profile the record is 27 overs, 62 unders and a push (70% UNDER).