Our Week 7 CFL picks page looks at the week’s top matchup! The Winnipeg Blue Bombers roll into Week 7 sporting a 5-0 SU/ATS record. Hamilton is 4-1 and fresh off a bye. The line is tight and we have circled a winner!
Winnipeg leads the league in rushing with 147 yards per game. Since 2018, the Bombers have faced 10 opponents in which they held a rushing yards advantage of greater than 40 yards over. In those 10 games, Winnipeg has posted an impressive 7-3 SU/ATS record.
Week 7 CFL Action
Winnipeg Blue Bombers (5-0) at Hamilton Ti-Cats (4-1)
Line: Bombers -1.5 and O/U 52
The DB record for undefeated CFL teams is 55% SU and 46% ATS. The hot zone for betting these teams to win straight up, however, is in Week’s 4-8.
Think about it, a team goes 1-0 to start the season. It doesn’t really mean that much and sure enough, these teams are only 53% straight up in Wk 2. If a team is 2-0 SU it takes on more meaning but HFA, weak opponents, etc, could have also played a role.
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But if a team is unbeaten by Wk 4, it starts to take on more meaning. The hot zone record for undefeated CFL teams from Wk 4-8 is 26-15 SU (3.71, 63%) and they are winning these games by an average margin of 3.7 points.
They are hitting 60% SU both home and away but against the number we see a marked variance:
Home: 5-15-1 ATS
Away: 12-8 ATS
Week 7 CFL Prediction
At home they are winning by 5.2 PPG but are also laying an average of -7.7 points.
Note that the Bombers have added two SU/ATS wins to the home team’s ledger in the past two weeks over Toronto and Ottawa.
On the road, these undefeated teams are only laying an average of -1.2 PPG and they are outscoring opponents 27.1 to 24.9, a variance of 2.2 PPG.
When road totals were less than 55, the road teams went 9-4 SU/ATS and when laying less than a FG that sharpens to 7-1 ATS with an average MOV of 5.4 PPG. The scores in these games averaged 27.4 to 22.0 and team totals for tonight’s game are WPG 26.5 and HAM 25.5.
I’m projecting the Ti-Cats to score in the 21-24 range but I’ll look for the Bombers run game to wear down the Hamilton D. If WPG can get to 27 they will hopefully keep their perfect record intact for another week.
1.5 STAR SELECTION
Take the Bombers -121 ML (BM) to win outright