It’s a light card this week and for our top play we look to Monday’s matchup which has the BC Lions hosting the Winnipeg Blue Bombers
The BC Lions lost the opener at Calgary and were beaten badly in Toronto last Tuesday but in-between they went 3-0 including two home wins against the Argos and Eskimos. BC has also won four of the past six home games vs. Winnipeg (1-4) and its led CFL odds makers toward the first double-digit spread of the 2013 season.
WEEK 6 CFL – BOMBERS AT LIONS (-11, O/U 49.5)
The Winnipeg Blue Bombers already find themselves in “future” mode for this young CFL season which isn’t much of a surprise considering their 1-4 record. Time Burke’s declaration that the team would permanently be handing the offensive controls to Justin Goltz didn’t catch a lot of people by surprise and the story is that the Bombers look to have more “continuity” at the QB position. While Goltz didn’t set the league on fire in his debut in Week 5, he did do enough to earn the nod as the Blue and Gold’s No. 1 pivot. After moving the ball with some success and putting together two consecutive TD drives, Goltz takes over for an often injured, inconsistent Buck Pierce who has been relegated to third string on the Bombers depth chart. We may have seen the last of Pierce as he’s expected to take on more of a mentoring role moving forward.
The appointment of Goltz as “the guy” allows the Bombers to focus on their other areas of concern, which at this point looks like every other position. The unbeatable defense we saw a few weeks ago has vanished and in its place we have seen multiple teams destroy the Bombers secondary using second and third string QB’s who have been putting up gaudy numbers.
At +11, the Bombers aren’t getting much respect and rightfully so. They just haven’t shown they can put a complete team effort together for 60 minutes of football.
Meanwhile in BC, the Lions are still licking their wounds from a thrashing delivered by backup QB Zach Collaros and his Toronto Argonauts in Week 5. In Collaros’ first ever CFL start he made the Lions defense look lost while putting up Ricky Ray-type numbers in a dominating performance. A dose of the Bombers is exactly what the Lions need to get back on track in the dog fight that is the Western Division. Expect the Lions to rely heavily on native Winnipeg RB Andrew Harris to carry the load after Calgary’s Jon Cornish had his way with the Bombers defense last week. Harris should take some of the pressure off of the relatively inexperienced BC receivers who were out of sync with QB Travis Lulay in last week’s loss.
Note that Lion slotback Nick Moore (hamstring) has been ruled out for this contest and Korey Williams will take his place in the lineup.
CFL PLAY OF THE WEEK
With Goltz now taking the snaps we expect the Bombers to be more consistent on the offensive side of things and have some success against a Lions team that gave up 38 points to the Argos. It won’t be enough to stop Lulay, Harris and the rest of the Lions from dissecting the depleted Bombers defense and at 49.5 or less; we see this game climbing to the high side.
Pick: Take the Over
Pick Sixty staff writer Greg Simes has covered Canadian football for more than a decade and he’s off to a 3-2 start in 2013 with his CFL Best Bets. Follow Greg on Twitter for CFL betting updates throughout the week!
ATS: Against the Spread