The Dallas Cowboys and Houston Texans are live in our Week 5 NFL Sunday Night Football preview. The full analysis includes SDQL trends and systems, injury updates and our Over/Under prediction for tonight’s game.
Dallas found its groove and made a nice comeback at home against a Lions team last week whose D is still figuring things out. Houston is home off a big divisional road win in OT that really shouldn’t have been that close. The have Buffalo on-deck so there is no way the Texans are looking past this in-state rivalry.
DALLAS (2-2) AT HOUSTON (1-3)
Week 5 NFL Odds: Texans -3.5 and O/U 45.5
The Texans offense broke out the way I expected them to last week and now it’s time for the defense to make a stand. It’s all about defending against Ezekiel Elliot and that’s easier said than done. Elliot is accounting for 51% of Dallas’ total offensive touches and he had 57% last week. If Houston wants to pull an upset here they’ll have to flex their muscle against one of the league’s top stars.
Week 5 NFL Sunday Night Football Notebook
Most of the big stars are in the house for Big D, including RB Zeke. DeMarcus Lawrence is also good to go, as are WRs Cole Beasley and Tavon Austin.
In our Week 4 report, we mentioned the Sean Lee injury trend and although Dallas won, they failed to cover against Detroit. The Vander Esch kid is solid but we need to see a lot more out of him before we can bypass the Cowboys’ lopsided 6-20 ATS record without their defensive centerpiece active.
For Houston, all-pro WR DeAndre Hopkins will play despite his rash of ailments. RB Alfred Blue is next in line if Lamar Miller can’t go.
SNF SDQL: Week 5 Sunday Night Football Trends in Effect
Dallas gains a high percentage of its points off field goals and away off a close home win, these mid-40’s totals are a big under play in Sports Database history. The SDQL text for this 73% angle is as follows:
tS(FG * 3) / tS(points) >= .3 and A and p:HW and p:margin < 4 and 42 <= total < 50
28 games have stayed under by 3.1 PPG and the average total was 44.6, very close to this one.
WEEK 5 NFL SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL PREDICTION
Houston has earned its way into more frequent primetime appearances but they are still trying to figure out how to perform under the spotlight. They haven’t had more than one PT win since 2012 and their record since then is 4-13 SU and 3-13-1 ATS. Other than a win over Cinci in Week 2 last year, Houston was schooled by the Chiefs, Steelers and Ravens. We’ll have to see what DeShaun Watson can do with a full year in the league but he’s been under constant pressure. Houston’s O-Line ranks 28th in pass protection.
Under bettors have benefitted from inflated lines with Dallas in recent primetime games. Just two of the past 11 for the Boys has been able to climb the heights. There is also a 5-14 Over/Under trend in effect for this game for non-divisional home faves off a divisional road win (Texans). The total has held stable all wee and we are looking this game to stay under the number.
SNF Pick: Take the Cowboys and Texans UNDER 45.5 points