Week 4 NFL Trends with Benefits

Our Week 4 NFL Trends feature looks at Sunday’s divisional battle between the Seattle Seahawks and Arizona Cardinals

Week 4 NFL Trends

Russell Wilson and the Seahawks are getting public attention over Kyler Murray’s Cards

Week 4 NFL Trends With Benefits
Seattle at Arizona
Line: Seahawks -5.5 and O/U 48.5

Playing on home turf this afternoon for the third time in four weeks, the Cardinals know how important it would be to earn their first win of the campaign. Arizona will travel for three of the next four weeks and getting a ‘W’ would go a long way towards maintaining chemistry on a team that many pundits wrote off long before the season even began.

Seattle (2-1) isn’t concerned with Arizona’s ‘feelings’ and after a home loss to the Saints, the Seahawks will be out for blood. Their road record off a home loss in the Pete Carroll era is 8-4-1 ATS and the scoring average in those games was 25-20. It fits right inline with today’s betting line but we are seeing decent value on the home dog.

The first of our Week 4 NFL Trends shows the Hawks at 3-13-1 ATS away in the month of September. Access that data with the following SDQL text:

team = Seahawks and A and month = 9 and coach = Pete Carroll

When favored against a winless team beyond Week 1, Carroll’s record is 0-3 ATS including a 20-17 win in Arizona last year as a 3.5-point fave. Additionally, Arizona fits a profile for undisciplined home dogs that is 57% overall and 59% in divisional play. That one is based on more than 200 plays.

Week 4 NFL Trends: Bird Battle

At half-time against the Saints, Seattle was down 20-7. But September teams that trailed the previous week by such a large margin are not equipped to be laying points on such a quick turnaround. It’s a misguided optimism that this team will flip a switch and suddenly figure things out. Sports Database history for these teams is a 63% play AGAINST and our SDQL power rating projections are showing strong value on this divisional home dog. Shop for a six and back the Cards to cover.
Pick: Take the Cardinals

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