Saturday’s double-header is loaded up, ready to fire and we have Week 4 CFL picks live in each of these matchups!
The back-half of this week’s CFL slate features Edmonton at Toronto and BC at Winnipeg. Read our Week 4 CFL picks on each game below, backed by the powerful SDQL!
Bombers QB Matt Nichols will start tonight’s game against the Lions
Edmonton at Toronto
For a pair of East-West rivals, tonight’s game at BMO Field has several interesting storylines. In a quarterback driven league, the James Franklin vs. Mike Reilly matchup definitely takes top billing.
Franklin spent years backing up Reilly in Edmonton and now, HC Marc Trestman has handed him the reins. With Ricky Ray (neck) lost for the season, Trestman had a decision to make and this was the most obvious choice. Franklin has performed well in three career starts, going 2-1, and he has spent years in the CFL, learning the game. He offers mobility that can offset the suspect pass protection by Toronto and his 13-to-1 TD:INT ratio proves how good Franklin is with decision making.
The Eskies-Argos are “live” in a SDQL UNDER profile that is 69% effective!
The “Over” is getting action on this game, opening at 52.5 and moving to 55.5, but I’m seeing things a different way. Yes, Double Blue is desperate to get off the schneid. And yes, these teams are 5-0 O/U in the past five meetings and 10-1 O/U in the past 11. But let’s not throw D out the window.
The top total for our Week 4 CFL picks is Toronto at Edmonton UNDER 55.5 points.
BC Lions at Winnipeg
I’m pulling for the Bombers to win straight up in this game but my money is on the Lions. Oddsmakers have moved the line from Blue -3.5 up to -7 on the news that Matt Nichols would be making the start over Chris Streveler and in my opinion, that lines has gone too far. We backed the chalk in our Early Week 4 prediction but in this game, we’re taking the points.
View a profile for this game that is 27-2-1 at the Killer Sports Trend Mart!
BC lost 41-22 as a dog in Edmonton last week and it’s easy to think they are ripe again, but populist betting like that seldom pays. In fact if you take all road dogs in Sports Database history that fit this exact scenario, their record is 51-9-1 ATS (85%). Of course, BC has to score to cover but who have they stopped? Montreal? Please. Winnipeg D has allowed 27.5 PPG since the start of 2017 including three games against BC. The Lions scored 45, 20 and 36 points in those three and until we some consistency, I’m taking the generous points spread every time.
Be sure and read our CFL betting strategy piece on the value of road dogs and shop for a seven in this game. My money is on BC +7 points.
Week 4 CFL Picks
In conclusion, our Week 4 CFL picks are as follows:
1. Ottawa Redblacks -5.5 points at Montreal — Winner (read analysis here)
2. BC Lions +7 points at Winnipeg
3. Edmonton and Toronto UNDER 55.5 points