Week 3 NFL: Saints at Panthers
Line: Carolina -5 and O/U 47
New Orleans stood in front of a locomotive last week and felt the brunt, losing 36-20 to New England. HC Sean Payton has lost his first two games eight times before and he was in this spot just two years ago at Carolina, losing 27-22. The Saints are 1-4 SU in their past five against the Panthers but they’ve covered four-straight.
Carolina is off a 9-3 win over Buffalo and against a desperate division rival, this pointspread feels like an overlay. Carolina had eight of its 16 games last year decided by three points or less. Home faves off a home win that are playing so many close games of late are just 5-14 ATS.
The expectation with New Orleans is that they will suddenly spark back to their notoriously high flying form. It makes the points seem tempting here but I’m not convinced this offense is ready to spark up anything. In divisional road games, teams like the Saints are only a 41-percent bet to cover but the totals in this profile are 62-percent successful to the “Under”.
SOFT HOME FAVES
Carolina has been a poor play at home laying anything between a field goal and a touchdown. Their latest trends say 6-25 ATS with 10 overs, 20 unders and a push. Carolina was 0-2 ATS last year in this angle and 1-7 ATS the past eight.
There is also a 72-percent “Under” angle live on this game for divisional home faves off a home game. The Saints and Panthers are the first “live” game of 2017 and the recent SDQL record is 14 overs and 37 unders. Our Totally Covered picks are 1-1 this season and we’ll look to move into the plus column with a play on this game staying under the number.