The New York Jets face their first divisional test in Week 2 Thursday Night Football
Each of these teams started off the season 1-0 but it could have just as easily been 0-1 as time wound down in the fourth quarter. Tonight the books are predicting a blowout for the New England Patriots in the home opener but the injury list is too much to ignore, even if it was submitted by Bill Belichick!
Underdog money has been rolling in on the Jets through the past 48 hours and the current line shows the Pats -10.5 with a total of 43.5 (Sports Interaction). Our initial reaction to this contest was to look at the under, first quarter under and/or the Jets team total. Here is some rational along with SDQL codes to research from SportsDatabase.com.
First we looked at Thursday games with a total between 35 and 45 and see 32 overs and 55 unders (63-percent), increasing to 15 overs and 39 unders (72-percent) when the home team is favored. Divisional contests wind down our play count but the 75-percent hit rate for unders is worth noting:
HF and day = Thursday and 35 < total < 45 and DIV
New York was 21st in first quarter scoring last season and against Tampa their only points in the first 15 minutes came via a safety. In Gino Smith’s first start at Foxboro we’d be surprised if he offers much but New England (-154) on the moneyline is too rich a price. Tom Brady knows this game isn’t won through 15 minutes and if he lacks urgency as the clock ticks down it could be a costly venture.
New York has only scored one time in five trips to Foxboro since Rex Ryan took over and road teams off a home dog win are notorious letdown teams the following week, averaging just 18 PPG. The Jets TT is 16 or 16.5 but each comes with a price and again, a late prevent defense by New England could easily lead to a backdoor cover just below the key number of 17.
Here is a code looking at home faves of more than -7 off a straight-up win where they failed to cover. This angle is 27-60 O/U since 1992
HF and p:W and p:points + p:line < po:points and line <= -7 and 40 <= total <= 51.5 and NB and season >= 1992
Despite the injuries New England should still be able to dominate time of possession, just maybe not put up their usual 30-plus points. Bottom line is that the Pats should be much more prepared for this game than any team led by Ryan and we project a 24-13 win for the home side. If it takes buying the total to 44 at -120 it’s probably worth the price. 37 is the one of the most landed on numbers in football and 37 + 7 = 44.
Pick: Take the Jets and Pats Under