Our Week 17 NFL betting feature looks at the late games that matter, as several teams enter ‘Must Win’ scenarios
By Jarvis Simes
Divisional home teams in Week 17 with a good, but not great record are often playing for something. In weaker divisions, the title may be up for grabs. In stronger divisions there could be a Wild Card on the line, or playoff seeding.
At minimum, there is a rivalry at stake and the oddsmaker’s line has to protect against Joe Public’s love affair with home favorites.
Looking around the league today, I’ve noted five home teams that could benefit from a win over their division rival. Those teams are the Chargers, Falcons, Ravens, Seahawks and Titans. While crunching the numbers on their various win percentages, the Detroit Lions also popped onto my radar.
Along with win percentages, I found it useful to include a parameter looking at each team’s record in divisional play thus far. Divisional record plays a part in the NFL’s playoff tiebreaker rules and it’s a thing that most coaches and players pay closer attention to. Everyone knows these are the most important games of the season and ‘record vs. the division’ is posted clearly in the NFL standings of every website and newspaper. It’s what I call an ‘inflater,’ fluffing up the line on our play AGAINST teams.
Each of our play AGAINST teams today had an equal or better record against the division than their rival
The systems plays identified for Week 17 are as follows. All are divisional road teams:
1. Raiders +7.5
2. Panthers +4
3. Packers +7.5
4. Bengals +9
5. Cardinals +9
6. Jaguars +2
In Sports Database history, the home teams here are a 62% play AGAINST.
Single-digit faves are the best group to fade: 31% ATS
Single-digit faves faced with revenge: 22% ATS
All of the home teams “live” except for Atlanta are faced with revenge, making them all 78% play AGAINST. To get the details on this system click ‘Week 17 Must Win System’.
Additional Week 17 NFL Trends with SDQL
The following SDQL trends apply to these Week 17 NFL matchups.
RAIDERS AT CHARGERS
Oakland has a record of 18-1 ATS when getting at least seven points off a loss and the total is more than 46. Get that record and SDQL at Sports Database!
PANTHERS AT FALCONS
Carolina HC Ron Rivera has a 14-4 ATS record against conference foes that had a winning record the previous season. Check the SDQL and NFL system chart!