Week 15 NFL trends and SDQL systems for the Tennessee Titans and San Francisco 49ers
The Tennessee Titans are one of the three Week 15 NFL road teams with playoff implications on the line. Tennessee lost in Arizona last week and with back-to-back home games against the Rams and Titans, can ill afford to let this one get away.
Unfortunately for Tennessee it appears that the 49ers have found their quarterback of the future. Brought in from New England, Jimmy Garoppolo has earned instant credibility with Kyle Shanahan’s offense. Garoppolo has averaged more than 300 passing yards in two starts and for the first time all year, helped San Fran to a 34-plus-minute time of possession in each start.
Jimmy G is 4-0 SU/ATS with five TDs and two picks in four career starts with 25-plus pass attempts
WEEK 15 NFL: TITANS AT 49ERS
Odds: San Francisco -1.5 and O/U 45
Tennessee has had a lot of sacks the past three weeks but they are on the road for a second-straight week and playing on grass. The O is losing the time of possession and the D has to be wearing out. They are also playing without their top pass rusher, Derek Morgan, who is out with a knee injury.
After gaining 15-plus sacks in their past three teams, road teams on grass off a low possession game (Titans) are 6-15-3 ATS with any line. See for yourself with this SDQL from the Sports Database:
SDQL: tS(sacks, N=3) > 14 and A and surface = grass and tp:TOP / 60 < 30.5
Road teams with double-digit sacks the past three weeks that have lost the time of possession battle each of their last two are going to have a hard time matching that pre-established sack quota. When playing an opponent that is winning the possession battle, the road team is 5-19 SU/ATS in the second-half of the season, losing by an average of 9 PPG.
WEEK 15 NFL TRENDS w/ BENEFITS!
The top three NFL teams season to date for gaining a high percentage of their points off field goals are San Fran, Indy and Pittsburgh. They are the only three above 29%. San Fran is the only home face “live” this week and when the opponent in this angle is coming off a road loss, the HF here is 76% ATS.
When our opponent had less than 29 minutes time of possession LW, our home team is 18-3 SU, 16-4-1 ATS and 16-5 O/U. If our team won its TOP LW they are 6-2 SU/ATS and 7-1 O/U, outscoring 31-19. In DBH, the latter angle expands to 14-6-1 O/U.
Niners HC Kyle Shanahan is an offensive genius and he finally has a smart enough QB with the talent to execute his gameplan. Shanny knows he’s dealing with a worn down Titans D this week and I expect him to grind them down with the run and short, high-probability passing routes that keep moving the chains and keep his defensive group on the sidelines.
San Fran can shut down the run and when Marcus Mariota is forced to win games with his arm, it doesn’t usually end well. Especially on the road. Tennessee has only scored more than 20 points once on the road all season and their team total this week is 22. That seems too high to me but it presents a quandary:
Bet the Titans team total UNDER 22 or lay the points with San Fransisco?
I think either is a good option and I’m going to go with the Niners against the spread.