The NFL playoffs are still three weeks away but with several teams on the brink of elimination we highlight some of the key situation stats, betting systems and trends we’re looking at for Week 15 along with SDQL tips and our early picks
Whether you are in a weekly office pool, fantasy football playoffs or perhaps the elimination round of an NFL handicapping contest; the games just matter more in Week 15. ‘Must’ win does not always necessarily translate into ‘Will’ win and it you are betting against the spread it helps to use a cautious approach on some of the marquee games.
December has traditionally been the best month for betting games to stay under the total and despite the second-half fireworks show witnessed in half-dozen bad weather games last week; we are still watching a couple games that are lingering near key numbers. Eight different teams have stayed under the total in 60-percent or more of their December home games the past seven seasons including the Carolina Panthers (5-8-1 O/U), who host the New York Jets this Sunday.
Carolina (9-4 SU) holds a slim lead on the Arizona Cardinals (8-5 SU) for one of the NFC’s playoff spots but the Panthers lost to those Cards back in Week 5 and with San Fran (9-4 SU) lurking, the Panthers need to take advantage of this weak non-Conference foe. AFC vs. NFC betting trends show a 43-14-1 O/U (75-percent) record in 2013 but there is good reason the Jets-Panthers total is just 40.5.
The Jets are 4-11 ATS in this spot as long as they are not coming off a close win. They’ve had trouble defending mobile quarterbacks and it’s hard to see this team staying interested once they fall behind early. The Panthers are in a divisional sandwich with New Orleans on-deck so they’ll want to avoid injuries; just get out in front and wear the Jets down, relying on their third ranked defense to close the door. Our Best Bets are 2-2-2 this year and we think this is a good spot to pull the trigger.
Pick: Take the Jets-Panthers UNDER 41 points (-120) ***BEST BET***
Pick Sixty’s free NFL selections are 24-14-2 ATS this season (63-percent)! Read our Early Week 15 play on the Patriots and Fish here!
SDQL SYSTEM OF THE WEEK
Non-divisional, conference road faves like Philadelphia (-5, O/U 51) who rushed for more than 200 yards the previous week (no bye in-between) and won by at least 14 points are just 7-10 ATS when laying more than three points but the “Under” in these games has cashed 13 of 17 times in SportsDatabase.com history (76-percent).
SDQL Text: NDIV and CAF and p:RY >= 200 and t:NB and p:margin >= 14 and line < -3
Minnesota played back-to-back overtime games vs. division rivals and then went on the road for a 50-minute snooze fest against the Ravens before the fire alarm went off, resulting in 42 fourth quarter points. Net result, another loss for the hard luck Vikes. Minnesota also lost Adrian Peterson (Check status) and Toby Gerhardt (questionable) and they’ll have Matt Cassel under center. Even Philly can stop Matt Cassel.
Pick: Take the Eagles-Vikings UNDER 51 points