Week 14 Monday Night Football pits the Minnesota Vikings against the Seattle Seahawks from Century Link Field in the great Pacific northwest. We have SDQL trends and systems supporting a side and with playoff implications looming, this should be an epic battle.
The Seattle Seahawks are looking to make it five-straight over the Minnesota Vikings when these two collide in Week 14 Monday Night Football
The Minnesota Vikings (6-5-1 SU) are second in the NFC North, three games back from a Bears team that is preparing the cement after beating the LA Rams last night. Seattle (7-5) is second in the West and gave up hope for tracking down the Rams when they lost both meetings of the season series. For the Hawks, it’s now just about getting wins to keep a leg up on the pack of toothless wolves in the NFC, panting as they fall off the pace. It’s also about sticking another knife into the Vikings team that they’ve beaten four of four times since 2012. Yes, this Week 14 Monday Night Football game is going to have a bit of everything!
WEEK 14 MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
Odds: Seahawks -3 and O/U 45.5
Seattle was home last week for a 43-16 win over the 49ers and it was relentless. Seattle piled 16 points on the fourth quarter to ensure victory and home teams off a home win where they scored 40+ points are 57% likely to stay under. In 10 Monday games the home team was 8-2 SU/ATS and 3-6-1 O/U, with small faves going 5-0 SU/ATS. Track that series of games with the following SDQL from Sports Database:
H and p:HW and p:points > 39 and MNF
The Hawks are 23rd in the league with 61 penalty yards per game. Minnesota is the 5th most disciplined team at 5.7 penalties for 47.9 PENY, with players living in constant fear of Mike Zimmer’s wrath. Using the ‘penalty yards’ SDQL from the database we can see that Monday home faves with numbers like the Hawks are 19-6 SU and 15-9-1 ATS with 7 overs, 17 unders and a push. The average total is right inline with this game and in the second half of the season, this profile is 3-11 O/U. Small home faves like Seattle are 5-2 ATS and faves up to -4.5 are 2-8 O/U.
Minnesota is coming off a 24-10 loss in New England and road teams of a low scoring road loss in Foxboro have not done well. They are on a 1-7 ATS run and as a dog of more than +1 are 1-9 SU and 3-7 ATS. Each of the three covers were each getting more than a field goal. We can also see a travel spot going against the Vikings, who are in a 2-in-2. I.e Seattle is home for a second-straight week and Minny traveling for a second-straight week. The home fave here is riding a 7-game SU/ATS win streak. When the road team is off a loss the home side and “Over” look good. In December, the CHF is 6-1 SU/ATS.
Going further back, December CHF are 9-2 ATS. Faves of more than -3 are 6-0 SU/ATS and these six lean more to the UN (2-4 O/U). CHF is ‘conference home faves’. Have a look:
Based on my numbers, Seattle is going to score 24-27 points and the Vikes will finish in the 17-20 range. Based on that forecast, Seattle is the play.
Week 14 Monday Night Football Best Bet: Take the Seahawks