Dallas returns home from New York with an inside track on first place in the division. The Cowboys have a tough slate of games ahead but first they must deal with an Oakland Raiders team who looking to play spoiler
If you are on the “Over” train for betting on the second of today’s NFL Thanksgiving triple-header, congratulations; you have joined the masses with what has turned into the most popular play of the day according to the public sports betting stats at Vegas Insider. The latest numbers show 79-percent action going towards the Oakland Raiders and Dallas Cowboys finding their way into the 50’s for this non-Conference game compared with 72-percent for the early game and 60-percent for Pittsburgh and Baltimore later tonight. Games with a total of 48 points or more this season are 27-21-1 O/U including a run of 3 overs and 7 unders the past two weeks and we’ve talked to several respected cappers who agree this game will go high but ours is a contrarian view and here’s why.
OAKLAND at DALLAS
NFL Odds: Cowboys -8.5 and O/U 49
Oakland has lost three of its past four and the only win in that series was against Houston. Sorry Texans fans, but everyone beats you. The Cowboys are coming off a season-sweep of the Giants and laying big points here for a reason. They’ve got a chance to take control of the NFC East for at least a couple days and can control their own destiny thanks to a 17-3 win at Philly in Week 7.
The stakes are high for one of these teams (Dallas) while Oakland’s biggest incentive is the long holiday weekend. Sure, HC Dennis Allen wants to get some reps for rookie QB Matt McGloin and test RB Darren McFadden’s hamstring but he’s going to pound the rock with Rashad Jennings all day long to see if they can find some holes in a Cowboys defense who are sorely missing LB Sean Lee.
Oakland’s passing game ranks 30th (193 PYPG), their 3rd down conversion is 31st (32-percent) and they take more sacks than any other team in the league. Dallas has a long weekend on-deck, too, but they have a terrible record coming home off a win against bad teams (3-8 SU and 0-11 ATS). The Cowboys only score 19.4 PPG in this set and they give up 26 PPG but they have never been favored in this spot by more than TD. Check this SDQL sample provided by Dr. Ed Meyer:
Dallas’ defense gives up 411 YPG at home but remember, they’ve hosted the Denver Broncos (522 yards) and then there was that wild Week 1 game against New York (67 total points scored). Oakland is not capable of putting up close to those kinds of numbers and they’ll probably be a lot closer to the other three teams that have visited Jerry’s Palace this year (Rams, Skins, Vikings) and averaged just 15.3 PPG.
THANKSGIVING DAY NFL PICKS – #2
The Cowboys have to visit Chicago for their fifth road game in seven weeks next Monday and as much as they would like to put on a show for their fans today, they are much more concerned about a possible encore performance in January. We wouldn’t lay these points on Dallas and if Oakland has any success it will be thanks to hard pounding, clock grinding run game.
Pick: Take the Raiders and Cowboys UNDER 49 points