Week 12 NFL Trends with Benefits: Seahawks at Bucs

Top NFL trends and sports betting tips from Sunday’s games between the Seattle Seahawks and Tampa Bay Buccaneers!

The Seattle Seahawks have once again established themselves as a true Super Bowl contender and this week, the Hawks are laying points on the road against a Bucs team fighting to stay in the race.

SEATTLE AT TAMPA BAY

Line: Seahawks -5 and O/U 46

Russell Wilson appears to be healthy after some early season injuries hampered his mobility. The Hawks have won three-straight, scoring 26 points per game (PPG) and Seattle is outscoring opponents 22-17 on the year. This is only their third game on grass this season and the offense didn’t do very well in the first two at Los Angeles or Arizona. Those are two good D’s so where do the Bucs rank?

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Tampa was no match for Atlanta and Oakland but they held their ground vs. the Niners, Bears and Chiefs. Seattle’s offense is closer to the former than the latter but this game is arguably their least important matchup in the second-half. All the home games are more important, they’ve got three divisional games on the dashboard, and they already won the big non-conference road game at New England (Super Bowl revenge, super power Pats, SNF).

Wilson is 11-1-1 ATS away off a home win vs. teams with a winning record and the Hawks are 10-6 ATS as a road fave beyond September, but I noticed they went 0-5 O/U in those games when the total was 44 points or more. Have a look with this SDQL code from Sports Database:

SDQL: team = Seahawks and AF and month >= 10 and season > 2012

The Hawks’ time of possession has been pretty bad lately, with only one of their past five games going over 30 minutes, but they are 4-1 SU in those games. The run game broke out against the Eagles (152) but SEA had played six-straight games without going over 100 RY before that. Seattle’s RYPC is 3.5 on the season, 29th overall.

TWIB TALK: WEEK 12 NFL TRENDS

Legion of Boom has only given up 130-plus rushing yards three times this year to BUF, ARI and SF. All of those teams rank better than TB in rushing but the Bucs were decimated at that position all year. They have Doug Martin back now and he’s getting all the touches but he’s not likely to break out against this D. Against KC, Martin was just (24/63 rushing; 3/42 receiving). TB O-Line is on the rise but they are still just 15th overall with a 22nd rank average on the year.

My power ratings suggest value on the home dog Bucs and non-divisional conference road faves off a home win vs. an opponent off a road win are only 3-11-1 ATS when they don’t run a lot of plays on offense. Seattle averages just 61.1 offensive plays per game (5th fewest). Take away the low play count parameter and this setup is a tough one for road faves of -3 or more. The database history shows the chalk at 12-30-1 ATS.

I think Seattle wins this game straight-up but I’m not comfortable laying the points. The total has hit 46 at one sportsbook as people start to realize Earl Thomas is out. Faced with revenge, Pete Carroll has a 6-11 O/U record and when the total is more than 44, all six games stayed under.

Pick Sixty Trend Tips: Take the Hawks and Bucs UNDER 46 points

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