Week 11 CFL Best Bet: Ti-Cats at BC Lions

We’ve hit three-straight winners in the Canadian league and this week, our CFL Best Bet looks at the Ti-Cats and Lions!

Week 11 CFL Best Bets Hamilton BC Lions

Ti-Cat QB Dane Evans has posted 4 TDs and 4 interceptions since taking over for Jeremiah Masoli

Week 11 CFL Best Bet: Hamilton at BC
Line: Tiger-Cats -3.5 and O/U 47.5

The Ti-Cats are 7-2 SU including a 3-1 SU record since QB Dane Evans took over for an injured Jeremiah Masoli. Against the Bombers, Riders, Lions and Redblacks, Hamilton is also 1-3 O/U their past four.

Hamilton ranks first overall in DPS for the season at +2.8 but they are -1.75 (7th) as a result of Evans starting the past three games.

SDQL Notebook: DPS stands for ‘Delta Points Scored.’ Essentially, it tells us how far above or below a team performed compared to their projected output. Learn more about SDQL trends here.

When considering Hamilton’s overall DPS, keep one thing in mind. Their DPS ranking was bloated up by a 64-14 win over the Argos in Week 2.

Ti-Cats’ scoring with Evans at the controls:

Wk 7 vs. WPG: 23 points due to a sloppy performance by the Bombers offense.

Wk 8 at SSK: 19 points in a non-divisional road game at a tough venue.

Wk 9 vs. BC: 35 points in a barnburner against a desperate Lions team; also non-divisional.

Wk 10 at OTT: 21 points vs. a Redblacks team that had beaten the Cats in 5-straight. As usual, it was more a case of the Ti-Cat D getting the job done here. Hamilton shutdown the Ottawa offense, holding Dominique Davis to 238 passing yards. It makes for a much easier day for any QB who’s trying to find a rhythm.

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Setup: Week 11 CFL Best Bet

The Ti-Cats have a Week 12 rematch on-deck against a frustrated Argos (1-7 SU) squad currently in the midst of three-game, four-week homestand. Unlike their other Ontario rival, Hamilton has owned the Boatmen for the past several years. Hamilton’s current win streak vs. Toronto is four-straight and since 2013, the Cats are 15-6 and 17-4 ATS in that series.

While this game is a letdown spot for the Cats, their defense is only allowing 20 points average. They’ve held 4 of their past 5 opponents to 24 or less and were unhappy about the 34 that BC put up in Week 9. Hamilton knows how weak the Lions are on the O-Line and can smell blood. They will be pinning their ears back at the chance to add to Mike Reilly’s sack total.

Lions Den

BC has a bye week on-deck and a chance to lick their wounds. Above all, the goal for the offense will be to keep QB Reilly alive. The D, in contrast, are trying to avoid a repeat of what happened in Week 9. It won’t be easy.

In home games this season, BC has scored 23-6-18 points and the 23 was in Week 1.

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