Week 10 Sunday Night Football Odds: Minnesota at Dallas
Line: Cowboys -3 and O/U 48
Minnesota is coming off a loss at KC last week that ended a four-game win streak. All four wins during the hot streak were by double-digits and now the Vikes will try to get back on track against a Cowboys team that is 3-1 SU/ATS at home.
Tonight marks the second time this season that Mike Zimmer’s squad has been on the road for consecutive weeks. The first such occurrence was Week’s 4-5, where they followed up a road loss in Chicago with a convincing 28-10 win at New York (Giants).
In the past four years, Minny has a 2-2 SU/ATS record playing the back-half of two roadies off a loss, and they 0-4 O/U in this spot. One thing to note is that this total is the highest of five scenarios since 2016 and it’s 13 points greater than the average final score in those games (17-18). This SDQL link to Sports Database shows the games.
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Week 10 Sunday Night Football Notebook
Dallas won three-straight to start the season and followed it with three losses. They sandwiched a Week 8 bye with a pair of big divisional wins and currently lead the NFC East in both win percentage and scoring.
At this stage of the season, midsize non-divisional home faves like Dallas that are coming off back-to-back divisional wins are 75% likely to win straight up with totals going 18-32-2 O/U. Here is the SDQL text:
H and NDIV and p:DIV and pp:DIV and streak > 1 and week > 8 and REG and -8 < line <= -3
Eliminating abnormal rest situations, the “Under” goes to 69% and totals greater than 43 are 3-10-1 O/U. On average, the 14 games stayed 5.4 points below a total of 47.5, right inline with tonight’s total.
There is another SDQL system “live” on this game for non-divisional home faves off back-to-back divisional games where they scored at least 30 points. When the total is in the 40’s we’ve seen 4 overs and 20 unders in database history including a 1-13 O/U run since 1999.
Week 10 Sunday Night Football Trends
The current streak for primetime unders is at four, making it the longest since November of 2018 when seven in a row stayed south. The Cowboys are 6-13 O/U in their past 19 games under the lights. The average total was 46 and they’ve finished short by 6.6 points per game.
WEEK 10 SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL PREDICTION
The Vikings have a solid +8.4 margin in scoring this season but it pales in comparison to Dallas’ +10.6 margin. Catching the Cowboys fresh off a divisional road win is as good a chance the Vikings will get for an upset but my numbers project a 71% likelihood that this game stays below the total by at least a field goal. I’m think we’re looking at a 24-20 type of game. Leaning Dallas but my money is on the under.
Pick: Take the Vikings at Cowboys UNDER 48 points