Betting tips and line moves from the hottest matchups for Week 1 along with SDQL trends and a home dog system that is hitting 65-percent!
By mid-July, it seems that most of the casual football betting people I talk to have had a look at their favorite team’s 2015 NFL schedule, noted the big matchups and checked down the Super Bowl odds. Ask them who’s playing in the Week 1 Sunday nighter, however, or what the lines are for the Monday Night Football double header, and you get a submissive glare as in, “What do you mean? I’ll check those when the football pool is posted at work in September!”
Week 1 odds have been posted for months but as I scrolled through the Pick Sixty Facebook feed, I noticed that the only three NFL items we’ve posted since February were the opening Super Bowl 50 odds (see Football Futures, Feb. 3), 2015 NFL Season Win Totals (Feb. 26), and then a link to the entire regular season schedule that was released April 21. My bad.
Without further ado, here are the updated Week 1 odds with notes on line movement, team trends and couple of betting tips to consider.
TNF: STEELERS at PATRIOTS
This line opened at New England -6 and O/U 53 but has since dropped to -3 with a total of 48.5. The Tom Brady suspension over Deflategate is still in the appeal process but it seems as if a ‘best case’ scenario for the Pats will be reduction from four games to two or three.
New England lost its opening week matchup last season, 33-20 to the Dolphins, ending a 10-year streak of Week 1 straight-up wins. Stranger than the outcome is the fact New England led 20-10 at the half before being outscored 20-0 in the next 30 minutes. Of note, Pittsburgh’s defense ranked sixth in the league last year, allowing 9.4 second-half points per game (PPG).
WEEK 1 MOVERS
The three most notable moves from Sunday’s day games are in New York, Chicago and Denver. The Jets (-3 and O/U 41) have been bought up from an opening spread of -1 against Cleveland and this game between eventual cellar dwellers has already received more attention than it deserves. New HC Todd Bowles should field a stronger defensive unit and while we don’t like the Browns, we certainly won’t be laying more than field goal with any unproven Jets team.
Chicago is one of seven home dogs on the Week 1 card and that’s the most we’ve seen from any year since 2010. The opener was Green Bay -4 and O/U 50, the current favors the Pack at -5.5 and O/U 51.5. Week 1 divisional home dogs are 11-3 ATS since 2009 (also “live” on the Rams) but Over/Under bettors may note that overall, these pups have been a 65-percent “Under” play the past 20 years with a one hundred game sample size. See for yourself with this SDQL code from SportsDatabase.com: HD and week = 1 and season >= 1995
The third noteworthy move is from the total in Baltimore at Denver (-4, O/U 51.5), down from an opening post of O/U 53, and who can forget 2013’s opener between these two at the Mile High City? Denver won 49-27 (OV 49) and including that game, the Broncos have a 15-1 SU and 10-6 ATS home record during the regular season with 11 overs, 4 unders and a push. With a total of O/U 51 or more, Peyton Manning is 12-1 SU and 10-3 ATS at home during the first-half of the season but the concern here is that new HC Gary Kubiak may lean more on the run game.
Here are the rest of Sunday’s games along with the twin bill from Monday night. We’ll be posting preseason football picks through August along with any Season Win Total bets, the minute they’re booked. If you have any football handicapping related questions or systems to inquire about, DM us @PickSixtySports!
KC at Houston (-1.5 and O/U 42.5)
Indy (-2 and O/U 47) at Buffalo
Carolina (-4 and O/U 42.5) at Jacksonville
Miami (-2.5 and O/U 44.5) at Washington
Seattle (-3.5 and O/U 43) at St. Louis
New Orleans at Arizona (-2.5 and O/U 47.5)
Detroit at San Diego (-1.5 and O/U 46)
Tennessee at Tampa Bay (-3 and O/U 42)
Cinci (-3.5 and O/U 44.5) at Oakland
Sunday Nighter: NY Giants at Dallas (-5.5 and O/U 49.5)
Monday Nighter: Philly (-1 and O/U 53) at Atlanta
Tuesday Morninger: Minnesota at San Francisco (-3 and O/U 41.5)