Online sportsbooks have shied away from exotic NFL lines offering ATS and Over/Under spreads throughout the season before it even begins but if you’re lucky enough to visit the Strip in Las Vegas prior to Week 1 kickoff in 2014, here is our early season Best Bet from New England at Buffalo in Week 6
The Pats play three of their first five games on the road and each road game will bring its challenges but it’s nothing New England hasn’t seen before: A season opener in Miami followed by a road game at the new park in Minnesota and then a Week 4 Monday nighter at Arrowhead sandwiched by home dates vs. Oakland and Cinci. No bye weeks, no Thursday games and by Week 6 the Pats won’t have faced a divisional foe in more than a month.
Sure, the Pats have Rex Ryan and the Jets on-deck but that marks the first of three-straight home games leading up to New England’s Week 10 bye. Looking back we see a 9-3 SU record for the Pats’ past 12 divisional road games in this spot with an average 7.4-point margin of victory (MOV) dispelling any myth that Tom Brady worries about who he’s playing seven days from now. Note: Brady’s ATS record in those 12 games is only 7-5 vs. the number but four of five games he was laying more than a field goal (avg. spread = -5.9).
Buffalo will also play three of five games away from home before hosting New England and in Week 6; the Bills will be coming off back-to-back road games at Houston and Detroit. Buffalo is projected as a 4-plus point road dog in all three road games but with home games in Week’s 2-3 against Miami and San Diego, the Bills will have likely cracked the win column at least once by Week 6. Four of the team’s six straight-up wins in Doug Marrone’s first season came at the Ralph but since 1989, no NFL team has more wins in Buffalo than New England (15). The Pats are 9-1 SU their last 10 trips and though Buffalo’s two ATS covers came in the past two seasons, in each instance the Bills were getting more than touchdown. This line could eventually be -6 points or higher by gameday but with early NFL odds posted at several online books, why wait?
Take the Patriots -3 points over Buffalo in Week 6 as our top ‘Early Buy’ of the 2014 season