UFC 169 Predictions: Barao vs. Faber

Renan Barao and former champion Urijah Faber highlight the Super Bowl weekend card in one of two championship fights and for our fight day preview, the Pick Sixty MMA expert offers his thoughts and best bets on what will surely be a night to remember

Tonight’s rematch between Renan Barao and Urijah Faber is one of two championship bouts on the UFC 169 card and the moneyline odds at one sportsbook online now favor this contest as ‘Fight of the Night’ at +170 over Ali Bagautinov vs. John Lineker (+400) and Jose Aldo and Ricardo Lamas (+500). Chris Barth, the MMA analyst with Pick Sixty runs through all three matchups in this instalment with picks and predictions along with UFC betting tips to help boost your bankroll ahead of Super Bowl XLVIII.


Ali Bagautinov (12-2) and John Lineker (23-6) will square off in a fly weight matchup looking to stir up some contenders for champion Demetrious Johnson. Bagautinov is on a 10-fight win streak including a pair of UFC wins, one being an impressive unanimous decision over Tim Elliott. Lineker has been having trouble making weight in the UFC. The fly weight has missed weight in three of five UFC appearances. While Lineker might struggle making weight he certainly does not struggle knocking people out. Lineker (+135) comes into this fight as a slight underdog and the odds on him winning by knockout, TKO or disqualification pay back at 3-to-1 but I’m looking for a fourth straight first round knockout.

UFC Prediction: Lineker to Win in Round 1 (+400)


Jose Aldo (23-1) and Ricardo Lamas (13-2) will go toe to toe in the first of the night’s two championship fights. Considered by many as one of the greatest pound for pound fighters on Earth since entering the UFC in 2011, Aldo has rattled off five-straight dominant wins. Lamas has also tasted recent success going 4-0 since signing with the UFC and from what I’ve witnessed, this fighter has true upset potential. Lamas feels that this championship fight is long overdue and he’s looking to seize the moment. A Round 5 win by Lamas is currently paying 33-to-1 while a decision will net you +900. Consider dividing one unit with 90-percent of your bet on the decision and 10-percent of your wager on the longer payback.

UFC Prediction: Lamas by TKO in Round 5 (33/1) or by unanimous decision (9/1)


The main event of UFC 169 will feature a rematch of UFC 149 combatants in champion Renan Barao (31-1) and former champion Urijah Faber (30-6). Barao has been on a tear, dispatching of everyone the UFC has thrown at him. Barao, who sports an impressive 31 wins has not lost since his professional debut back in 2005. Faber has rebounded since the Barao loss going 4-0 in 2013 but I don’t see this fight being much different than the first meeting. I have Barao dominating the contest from bell to bell but Faber is always a game opponent and will hang in there with the champ, taking his lumps. Current UFC 169 odds are stacked against Faber (+245) and the top value play that I can see is on Barao by decision.

UFC Prediction: Barao by unanimous decision (-111)


Read our first UFC 169 Picks and Previews article featuring a play on Jamie Varner vs. Abel Trujillo!