We’ve got top ATS and Over/Under trends and systems from Sunday’s late game between the San Francisco 49ers and Green Bay Packers
Wild Card wagering can be a funny animal and the last stop on this weekend’s roller coaster ride is at the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field where temperatures are already in the single digits and expected to fall. The wind is gusting up to 20 mph and Green Bay gets a team from California; sounds like a perfect recipe for the Packers and yet online sportsbooks across the board are favoring the Niners by -2.5 or -3 points. What gives?
Well, Green Bay did have an impressive playoff run at home during the 80’s and 90’s but since expansion the Pack are just 4-4 SU at home in the postseason, going 3-5 ATS. The Pack were favored in each one of those games and scored an average of 24.2 points but the defense also allowed 25 points per game (PPG) and looking at their results this year, you have to go back to Week 7 to find the last time Green Bay held anyone to less than 21 points (Browns).
Green Bay’s defense has struggled with injuries but the most notable ding this year was to Aaron Rodgers (collar bone). He made a triumphant return last week but the Bears defense does not hold a candle stick to this group of Niners and playing on the road vs. non-divisional opponents, San Fran is 13-2-1 ATS the past couple seasons with a scoring average of 26 to 17. This NFL betting chart from SportsDatabase.com illustrates their success:
SDQL: team=Fortyniners and A and NDIV and date>=20110925
In a pass happy league, the Niners have thrived going 25-9-3 ATS vs. teams that attempt an average of 35-plus passes per game (GB is 35.6; 37.1 at home) and although the Pack’s new found run game ranks them seventh overall (133.5), there are two things to consider. First, San Fran (137.6 RYPG) is one of the teams ahead in that department and second, the Niners run D ranks third overall at 96 yards allowed per game.
SDQL SYSTEM OF THE WEEK
In December or January since 2003 there have been 17 games where a team was coming off a close divisional win by three points or less that faced an opponent who were also coming off a divisional win. The record was 5 overs and 12 unders and just one of those 17 games produced more than 24 first-half points.
We posted our first-half total for this contest at the Pick Sixty Facebook page January 3rd and the number (UN 24) is still available at William Hill’s online sportsbook. Heavy public action on the under has the overall game line to 46.5 but for our Trends with Benefits play, we’ll go with a side.
Rodgers is a dangerous quarterback and these conditions are going to be tough for both teams but the Niners have a much better defense. As long as the defensive backs don’t get burned early on traction, the front seven should take over the game and put ample pressure on the QB. We’re looking for Colin Kaepernick and Fran Gore to produce strong numbers on the ground and the past two seasons Green Bay is just 1-4 SU/ATS vs. mobile QBs. Kaepernick is making good decisions and the Niners have traveled well under Jim Harbaugh. We think they’ll get the job done today.
Pick Sixty Trend Tips: Take the 49ers