Top trends and sports betting tips from Sunday’s games between Dolphins at Bills and New York Giants at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Miami Dolphins, Green Bay Packers and New York Giants are all “live” this week in a simple angle for NFL road teams off a road loss, where the betting line this week is within +/- 3 points of ‘Pick’. From 2011-14, this system was 34-12-2 ATS and although it has started off this year at 0-4 ATS, three of those losses were before Week 6. With the free sports database SDQL, we can see that the strongest time of year for betting these road teams has been from Week’s 6 through 10 — the ‘meat’ of the season.
Use the following SDQL text to track a mid-season record that is 24-9 ATS (73-percent) since 2007: A and p:AL and -3 <= line <= 3 and season >= 2007 and NB and 6 <= week <= 10
DOLPHINS at BILLS
Line: Buffalo -4 and O/U 44
AFC East road teams off a game against the Pats dropped to 0-6 ATS last week with the Jets’ loss in Oakland. That’s a noteworthy stat but if you look at the matchups, four of the six teams travelled to either Denver or the west coast for their loss. Add in the fact that Miami is playing with a few extra days of rest, and I think the trend is negated.
Miami matches up well with the Bills and they fit a couple of my power rating trends that are 7-2 ATS (revenge teams) and 11-6 ATS (road dogs). The Fish are also “live” in a strong profile for road dogs that were humiliated during a previous performance at home earlier in the season. In divisional games, the road team is 170-105-7 ATS overall (62-percent) including a 22-13 ATS mark since 2011. When playing on the road for a second-straight week, these pups improve to 9-2 ATS the past five years (50-28 ATS all-time).
Pick Sixty Trend Tips: Take the Dolphins
GIANTS at BUCCANEERS
Line: ‘Pick’ and O/U 49
The Giants and Saints played an absolute barnburners last Sunday and in this week’s NFL Report, Sportsbook Breakers presented an angle for how these teams plays the following week. Overall, they are 67-percent shot to stiffen up their defense and gain a win (“live” on New York and New Orleans), and the Giants also fit a sub-profile of our SDQL trend from earlier that is 16-1-2 ATS going back to 2005.
Pick Sixty Trend Tips: Take the Giants
Although the Packers at Panthers game is also ‘”live” in this system, I’ve actually made a separate play for that contest that was posted yesterday @PickSixtySports. We’re going to feature that game in this week’s Over/Under betting feature, ‘Totally Covered’, so please check back in an hour or so for details.