Trends with Benefits: Week 8 NFL Betting Tips

Top trends and sports betting tips from Sunday’s late game between the New York Jets and Oakland Raiders

JETS at RAIDERS

Line: New York -3 and O/U 44

The New York Jets are off a hard fought loss to New England and now travel for a second-straight week — this time across three time zones, to play a Raiders team who have already matched up to the most optimistic goals for this team in 2015. Well, on offense anyway.

Oakland is throwing the ball 38 times per game this season (43 attempts at home), and against the Jets, that kind of gameplan only works if you’re Tom Brady. Last week, Brady threw 54 times against the Jets and won 30-27. Since the start of 2014, Brady is 6-1 SU in games where he throws 45 times or more. In that same time frame, the rest of the league is 13-31 SU at home with 45-plus pass attempts (9-35 ATS), and 13-45-1 SU on the road (19-40 ATS).

The other two teams this season that passed more than 40 times against New York (Miami, Washington), lost by straight-up margins of 13 and 14. Check that with SDQL text: team = Jets and season = 2015 and o:passes > 40

Oakland has only rushed the ball 23 times per game this year (28th in the league), but it would serve the Silver and Black well to lean on their run game against the Jets. When home dogs who normally average more than 40 pass attempts per game cut down on thier passing, and lean on the ground game (more rush attempts than normal), they have a winning record straight-up, cashing 72-percent ATS (47-18).

This might sound like a pitch to bet the Raiders, and I do feel they have a legitimate chance to win straight-up, but my play is on the under. The Raiders haven’t proven they can score against top defenses, scoring 13 against the Bengals and 10 against Denver. The overall situation is a tough one for the Jets and they are 0-3 SU/ATS their past three trips out west, scoring 24-7-0 points. The following SDQL code from SportsDatabase.com shows a 1-8 O/U system “live” on today’s game:

SDQL Text: HD and NDIV and p:DIV and p:ADW and p:TY > 400

The translation is for “Non-divisional home dogs off a divisional road dog win where they gained more than 400 total yards”. I’m looking for a smart gameplan out of each team as they try to grind out a victory.

Pick Sixty Trend Tips: Take the Jets-Raiders UNDER

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