Top trends and sports betting tips from Sunday’s late game between the San Diego Chargers and Denver Broncos
These teams meet for the second time in two weeks as the Chargers (3-4 SU) look to finally pull their record up to .500 for the first time in 2016. Denver lost RB CJ Anderson (knee) last week but WR Demaryius Thomas (hip) is expected to start. The Broncos will face a much tougher challenge this week then they had from Houston on Monday.
SAN DIEGO at DENVER
Line: Broncos -4 and O/U 43
Denver had a great record vs. the division during the Manning years and the D was certainly a big part of it, but Trevor Siemian’s record vs. the AFC West is 0-1. He lost at San Diego in Week 6 on TNF, going 30 for 50, 220 PY and 1 TD; no picks. Denver lost two fumbles that game but they also recovered two. Each team had two QB sacks. The Broncos were 6 of 15 on third downs and SD was only 3 for 13. Here is the Sports Database code for Denver vs. the West:
SDQL: team = Broncos and season > 2011 and DIV
Penalties were one of the most lopsided stats in that game, DEN taking 12 for 103 and SD only taking 3 for 20. SD only threw for 178 yards vs. DEN and rushed for 99.
SD has put up 30-plus points this year against JAX, NOR, OAK and ATL but look where those teams rank defensively. JAX is 13th, the rest are 27th or worse and all four rank 22nd or worse against the pass. DEN is 4th overall and 2nd against the run, 14th against the pass.
PENALTY PROBLEMS FROM THE PAST
DEN is taking 3.9 offensive penalties per game to SD’s 2.9 (3rd fewest), so penalties shouldn’t be the deciding factor in this game but it seems like they were last game. The record for divisional HFs with same season revenge that took more penalties last game is only 45% ATS.
SDQL: DIV and P:L and P:season = season and P:penalty yards > Po:penalty yards + 50 and HF and line >= -5
When the stats were more lopsided, the record slips to 41% ATS. Faves of -5 or less are 3-16-1 ATS. 20 games and the avg score favors the road dog 20-17. Only one of the six SU wins in the sub profile was by more than 3 points.
These teams met two weeks ago on TNF and the Chargers won SU as small HDs. Now the Broncos are laying -4.5 at home. This is the first time since 2000 a home team in this spot has been laying more than a FG. Their DB record is 2-4 ATS and the two winners were -6 and -10.5. This is only the second time where our opponent (SD) travelled for another road dog win between the two matchups. SD was at ATL last week, taking down the Falcons team that just beat DEN at Mile High in Wk 5.
Regardless of p:line or site, the fact SD went away and won last week should be earning them some respect. Only four of 15 teams in the Chargers’ spot this week lost the rematch by more than four points.
LOSING TEAMS WITH PLUS-MARGIN SCORING
The spread, site and SU records are probably the first three things a square looks at when handicapping a matchup. Scoring margins come way down that list but if you look at these strong scoring teams whose record was sub-.500 SU, you can see a solid 72-percent ATS record when getting points on the road. The record since 2006 is 13-2 ATS. San Diego is outscoring their opponents by three points on average this season, 29.4 to 26.4.
SDQL: tA(margin) >= 2 and WP < 50 and AD and line < 7
Underdogs getting more than a field goal but less than a touchdown shows an impressive 25-6 ATS record in this angle and divisional pups went 13-2 in that spot. When the road teams record was right on .500, their ATS WP dropped by 10-20% in various sub-queries and the reason was because the number of points they were being given was down by 1-3 on average. We’re looking for value on a road squad here that has continued to fight despite several heartbreaking losses.