Trends with Benefits: Week 7 NFL Betting Tips

Top trends and sports betting tips from Sunday’s late game between the Oakland Raiders and San Diego Chargers

NFL fans got a bonus this morning with the shootout from London but the late card is thin, with just two games to flip between. Luckily, we’ve got a play from one of them and there is a SDQL system noted that’s also “live” on the Cowboys at Giants game. At the bottom you’ll also find a few notes for tonight’s Eagles vs. Panthers matchup.

RAIDERS at CHARGERS

Line: San Diego -3.5 and O/U 48

No word of a lie, the Raiders (+4) was actually the first play I made this week (Tuesday). I was hoping the line would be a little higher but there was no way we were getting more than six, so the next best alternative was to lock down the dog with more than field goal.

First of all, the Raiders were coming off a bye week and they lost two games going in. The past 15 years or so, road dogs up to +7 points have been a good bet in this spot going 13-11 SU and 15-9 ATS (63-percent). It was “live” just last week on the Dolphins (+2 at Titans), and we all know what happened there. This angle is also “live” on the Dallas Cowboys today and you can track the results with the free sports database at KillerSports.com. Here is the SDQL code: AD and week = p:week + 2 and p:L and pp:L and line < 7 and season >= 1998

Second, the Chargers fit a profile I’ve been tracking since 2006 for divisional home faves in the first meeting of the season that has a 63-percent ATS hit rate (on the dog), with more than 110 plays. These HFs are 3-8 ATS so far in 2015 and they were 3-8 ATS last year. Since 2006, they have had only one winning season (2013).

Finally, you’ve got the revenge factor. Oakland has not had a lot of success against the Chargers of late (5-19 SU since 2003) but they’ve covered nine of the past 12. There is no real home field advantage for the Chargers in this game, the Raiders are rested up and for my money, they’ve got a legitimate shot to win the game straight-up. As noted in this week’s Totally Covered, the Raiders are a Week 7 Power Rating play and I’ve booked them them to at least get a cover.

Pick Sixty Trend Tips: Take the Raiders

SDQL Player Data: Since the start of 2014, Chargers QB Phil Rivers is 4-8 SU and 3-9 ATS following a game where he threw two or more TD passes.

EAGLES at PANTHERS

Line: Carolina -3 and O/U 45.5

Philly was struggling early this season and then they ripped New Orleans in Week 5 at home. The next week, the Giants came in riding a three-game winning streak and the Giants looked great on their opening drive, scoring seven. The final was 27-7 Eagles.

It was an incredibly sloppy game for both teams but off back-to-back wins, the Eagles are not getting nearly as many points for this matchup as they would have been two weeks ago. Still, Philly has a 7-1 ATS record as a road dog off the Giants and they are 11-5-1 ATS away off a game where they turned the ball over more than three times.

Pick Sixty Trend Tips: Take the Eagles

Access all of this week’s handicapping trends, systems and predictions in the Killer Sports Handicapping Report!