Trends with Benefits: Week 6 NFL Betting Tips

Top trends and sports betting tips from Sunday’s late games including a top rated play from the Ravens and Fortyniners (4:25 pm ET start)

BALTIMORE at SAN FRANCISCO 

Line: Ravens -2 and O/U 43

The Niners looked good in their Week 1 win over the Minnesota Vikings but have since lost four-straight games by an average 20.5 points per game. The teams they played over that span, Pittsburgh, Arizona, Green Bay and New York Giants, are each considered a top 10 offense in this league (Ravens are 14th), but if Baltimore is going to try and turn this season around, the opportunities don’t get much better.

The Ravens are off an overtime loss in Cleveland and qualify for one SDQL system that is 18-8 O/U in Sports Database history. They’ve also got a history of playing “Over” vs. mobile quarterbacks, outscoring the Skins (RG3), Niners (Kapper) and Panthers (Newton) 33-24 in those three games.

Favorites off three-straight divisional games are a solid ATS and “Over” bet and non-divisional road faves ahead of a Monday night game have a 15-6-2 ATS record the past five years, cashing 17 of 23 times to the high side. Access that winning NFL trend with the following SDQL text: NDIV and A and line <= 0 and n:day = Monday and season >= 2009

Joe Flacco has been forced to work with a makeshift group of receivers that we detailed in last week’s Browns vs. Ravens betting feature, Totally Covered. It sounds as if Steve Smith (back) will miss this game as well but Justin Forsett (ankle) will go and he should find room against this 30th ranked Niner defense.

Baltimore’s D has also given up 27 points per game this year and the Niners are more comfortable at home. With Vernon Davis and Carlos Hyde in the lineup, Colin Kaepernick will move the chains. I’m looking for each of these teams to score 24-plus points.

Pick Sixty Trend Tips: Take the OVER

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