Trends with Benefits: Week 6 NFL Betting Tips

Top trends and sports betting tips from the Eagles game and Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers!

The Philadelphia Eagles burned me last Sunday on not only a flat bet but also in my suicide pool as well. My other top pick was Green Bay but it seemed like the Packers would be a good team to have in my back pocket as the weather got worse and the offense started to gel. It’s obviously not a concern anymore but now that that’s over, I’m going back with Philadelphia for another shot as they roll into Washington.

EAGLES AT WASHINGTON FOOTBALL CLUB

NFL Odds: Philly -3 and O/U 45

PHI and GB were the first two bye teams of 2016 and they returned in Wk 5. GB won at home and the Eagles lost at DET. Philly looked uncharacteristically sloppy in the first quarter and made little mistakes throughout the game that ended up costing them the win (lost 24-23). Part of it might be that they have a rookie QB-HC combo but regardless of the fact, they are “live” this week in a 2-Back Bye Week profile that is hitting 64-percent in Sports Database history (DBH). The overall record is 37-21-1 ATS and when this week’s game is divisional and last week’s was not, the 2-Back Team is 11-5 ATS.

Last week was the first time all season Philly didn’t finish with a positive turnover margin. Divisional road teams off a loss that know how to take care of the football are better than 60% SU/ATS when the line is within +/- 3 points of ‘Pick’. Get the run down with the following SDQL code: tS(TOM<0, N=4) = 3 and A and p:L and DIV and -3 <= line <= 3

Philly is dominant divisional road team the past 10 years or so, highlighted in our early Week 6 NFL trends feature, and Washington is only 1-5 SU/ATS at home following back-to-back games where the offense failed to convert more than four 3dm.

Pick Sixty Trend Tips: Take the Eagles

DALLAS AT GREEN BAY

NFL Odds: Packers -4.5 and O/U 47.5

The Cowboys at Packers game was one of the toughest ones for me to decide in my NFL ATS pool this weekend. Sure, Dallas leads the league in rushing but if Aaron Rodgers connects on a few early bombs to Randall Cobb and Jordy Nelson, flashy run stats suddenly take a back seat.

It’s a case of ‘What have you done for me lately’ with Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliot but I have faith and went with Dallas +4.5 points. Here is an angle that’s “live” against the Packers with a 25-18 ATS record for the road dog:

SDQL: NB and week = pp:week + 3 and HF and p:HFW and REG

We’re looking to fade home faves off a home fave win that followed their bye week. Getting +4.5 or more, the road dog in this profile is 20-10 ATS (67-percent). This isn’t an official NFL Trend Tips selection, just some guidance for anyone still on the fence about a tough matchup.

Good luck this weekend.

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