Trends with Benefits: Week 5 NFL Betting

Top trends and sports betting tips from Sunday’s late games between Carolina and Arizona and the Broncos vs. Cowboys

 

NFL bettors across the continent are gearing up for a marathon shift today after the San Diego Chargers and Oakland Raiders were shifted into the 8:30 pm ET slot. Better get your popcorn!

 

CAROLINA at ARIZONA

Line: Panthers -3 and O/U 42

Hilton SuperContest Picks: Panthers (259) to Cards (138)

The Panthers run D allowed 70 and 60 rushing yards in two home games this year but they were gashed for 149 yards against the Buffalo Bills. Carolina’s inability to contain EJ Manuel in the final drive is what led to Buffalo’s last minute scoring play in a 24-23 loss but they shouldn’t have to worry much about Carson Palmer’s scrambling skills. In 11 years Palmer has only rushed for more than 50 total yards in a season once and that was four years ago.

 

Arizona’s rush D is second in the league (75 RYPG allowed) and they limited Detroit in the Cards’ only home game (Week 2) but Reggie Bush was injured after just nine attempts. His two healthy games, Bush finished with 90 yards and 139 yards and with a full 60 minutes against the Cards he likely would have found a few holes. The handicapping tip is that early in the year, strength of the “average stats against” need to be taken with a grain of salt. With a week of rest to prepare there is no telling what Cam Newton’s offense might be capable of. Remember his pro debut in this building two years ago? (400-plus passing yards, 2 TD passes and 1 rushing TD)

 

The Cardinals are 16-5 ATS as a home dog vs. an opponent who won its previous game (SDQL Text: team = Cardinals and HD and op:W and season >= 2006) but small road faves off a bye boast a 15-6-1 ATS record since 2005, seen here with this code from SportsDatabase.com:

 

SDQLAF and line >= -3 and season >= 2005 and p:week + 2 = t:week

 

Our take is that this game is too tough to call but for more wagering info and Greg Dempson’s free STAR-rated play check out Panthers at Cardinals Week 5 NFL Picks.

 

DENVER at DALLAS

Line: Broncos -7.5 and O/U 55.5

Hilton SuperContest Picks: Broncos (305) to Cowboys (175)

Considering Dallas’ mediocre 20-15 SU record since opening their new stadium it’s surprising they have only been listed as a home dog four times (1-3 SU, 3-1 ATS). All four of those games went over and two featured closing totals north of 50 but today’s game is the highest Over/Under odds ever posted in Jerry’s Palace. League-wide there have been just 35 totals set at 55 or greater since 1989 and the average combined final score was 57.1 points (18-15-1 O/U). The home team in those games is 21-14 ATS.

 

Early in the season, before Week 8, totals of 54 or more are 7-3 O/U with the four home dog contests going 3-1 O/U. Scoring averages were 36 PPG for the road fave and 24 PPG for the home dog.

Pick Sixty Trend Tips: Take the Broncos Team Total OVER 31.5 points

 

Research your own NFL trends and betting angles free at SportsDatabase.com and stop by the Google Chat Room to discuss winning picks and strategies with like minded bettors.