Trends with Benefits: Week 5 NFL Betting Tips

Top trends and sports betting tips plus a power rating best bet on the Tennessee Titans at Miami Dolphins

So many games, so many possible plays, and now along with all the injuries we also have weather and bye weeks to factor into our NFL handicapping process. Life = good.

I had the “Over” circled in today’s Washington at Baltimore matchup but the affect of that post-tropical cyclone, formerly Hurricane Matthew, is causing some hesitation. I know the Ravens D ranks well on paper but just keep in mind who they played their first three weeks (Bills, Browns and Jags). Washington was a notoriously bad road team last year, starting 0-5 SU, but they actually won their final three road games of 2015 and started this year’s circuit with a high-scoring win at New York.

Teams like that who built reputations the previous year can be value plays if you catch the ship early in the turn, before Joe Public latches on. When the total is more than 42, these surging road teams have brought out thier guns and played “Over” at a rate of 67%. Games that took place before Week 11 are 10-2 O/U and riding a 6-game “Over” streak since 2010. Games went over the total by more than a TD apiece and in three games that took place before Week 8, the road team is 3-0 ATS and 3-0 O/U.

I’ll leave this one as a small lean to the Skins +4 and a bigger lean to the over. Check the latest weather updates out of Maryland and if the wind lets up, maybe consider this game for a teaser.

TENNESSEE AT MIAMI

Line: Dolphins -3 and O/U 43

This is another game that I kept on the back burner all week as we waited to see if it was even going to be played, let alone at Sun Life Stadium. Once it was confirmed, I booked the Titans in as one my plays for the EveryEdge Super Picks contest and also played them to cover.

The Titans are on the road for a second-straight week and they’re off a loss at Houston. Their offense ranks 23rd overall and has scored 3 points or less in the first quarter of all four games this year. That’s not a very start for Mike Mularkey and Marcus Mariota but I think they can use this game against a floundering Dolphins team as a chance to break out.

Small home faves off a Thursday road loss are only 7-10 ATS with 12 overs and 5 unders in Sports Database history. See for yourself with this SDQL: H and p:AL and p:day = Thursday and F and line > -4

Tennessee has yet to score more than 20 points but these teams are close in the standings and up to +5, there is value on non-divisional conference road dogs off a road loss that score low.

SDQL: abs(wins – o:wins) < 2 and CAD and tA(points) < 20 and p:AL and line <= 5 and NDIV

These NDIV road pups are 29-15 ATS, winning more than half the game straight-up, and the record for all games since 2006 is 19-4 ATS.

The Titans start a three-game home stand next week and a win here would certainly boost morale. It’s one of those plays were you kind of have to hold your breath but my Pick Sixty Power Ratings give this dog a game grade of 44 and 15 plays in that category this season are 11-4 ATS. The Titans offense is poised to break out vs. this Dolphin D. I think the points are a gift here and don’t see how Miami deserves to be laying points against anyone.

Pick Sixty Trend Tips: Take the Titans

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