Trends with Benefits: Week 5 NFL Betting

Top trends and sports betting tips from Sunday’s late games between the Chiefs, Forty Niners, Cardinals and Broncos!

The general Over/Under betting trends on any given NFL Sunday will show totals and home chalk on the rise. In two late games this week, Kansas City at San Francisco and Arizona at Denver, the totals have actually been getting bet down since early this morning and the low scoring trends in Dallas, Indianapolis and Jacksonville are not helping to restore bettor confidence in the “Over”. We’ve booked two plays from the late card backed by a ton of SDQL data, systems and handicapping information. Here’s a quick breakdown.

CARDINALS at BRONCOS

Line: Denver -8 and O/U 47.5

The Broncos lost in OT at Seattle in Week 3 and both these teams are coming off a bye week. Non-Conference faves are an 80-percent hit rate straight-up in this situation and when the line is between -3 and -7 points, the record shows 3 overs and 13 unders. Bronco totals will always open on the high side to protect against early consensus picks “Over” and Peyton Manning’s offensive ability demands it. But here’s one angle suggesting that teams who score high in the fourth quarter before their bye week may take a different approach in the return (SDQL Text: season >= 2011 and p:P4 > 14 and week = p:week + 2 and REG).

 

Denver scored 17 fourth quarter points in Week 3 at Seattle and we feel they will win this game straight-up but look for Manning to run a ball control offense that strictly limits Arizona’s time of possession. We booked the UNDER 48.5 in the EveryEdge Handicapping Invitational and at 47.5 or more, still suggest this game stays low.

Pick Sixty Trend Tips: Take the UNDER

KANSAS CITY at SAN FRANCISCO

Line: Niners -4 and O/U 43

This line sat at 44.5 all week and as bettors started to doubt San Fran’s ability to score, the total and the ATS line fell. The Niners are “live” in the post-Chip Kelly profile that since the start of 2013 has sent most opponents to the mat but anyone who watched last week’s win would realize that Philly didn’t do their usual number on the opposing D.

 

Dogs with a bye on-deck are 12-20-1 ATS in this range and when last week’s win was by a big margin (14-plus), road dogs since 1993 are just 29-55-1 ATS . We think Kansas City falls back to earth following last week’s dominating home win but the million dollar question is by what margin. Harbaugh’s like a scientist at home, winning by just enough. He’s actually a better chalk play on the road when he’s focused on putting teams away. We’ve also got numbers from our ‘Scrap or Salvage’ system suggesting the Chiefs will stay close but that the game will stay under. Click this SportsDatabase.com link for details. Our solution was to tease San Fran to the under (our teasers are hitting 60-percent so far this year)!

Pick Sixty Trend Tips: Teaser the Niners +3 to UNDER 50

 

Read Totally Covered – Week 5 for our Best Bet on the Bengals at Patriots game Sunday night!