Top trends and sports betting tips from three games on Sunday’s NFL card including the primetime contest between the New Orleans Saints and Dallas Cowboys!
Our NFL Trend Tips took a loss last week when Denver and Seattle fell short of the total by two points. Both those teams are off this week but TWB Notes are back with tips on three Week 4 games that we’ve played for one unit each. Our overall NFL record is 11-12-1 through Thursday’s game (NYG – Winner) and totals have let us down but it’s still early in the year. One of the secrets to successful handicapping is to stay with your proven methods through tough times and things will eventually even themselves out.
We published a play on the Falcons and Vikings UNDER 47 in this week’s Totally Covered, NFL Betting segment and here are some notes on the rest of our Sunday lineup. Good luck to everyone today.
BILLS at TEXANS
Line: Houston -3 and O/U 42.5
The Texans return home off a blowout loss to New York and this didn’t work out too well for Houston last year (0-5 ATS). Buffalo fell back to earth last week after the big win over Miami and they should be refocused but it will really help their cause if RB Spiller is good to go. Buffalo prides itself on a strong run game and during a full season, any team who rushes 29-plus times per game will likely finish top 10 in rushing. In this game we have two teams averaging more than 29 carries per game, EJ Manuel under one center and Ryan Fitzpatrick under another. RB Foster is a gameday decision but one source said he’s going to start and even without Spiller, the Bills have Fred Jackson. Watch for both these teams to keep a firm lean on the rush as this game stays under the number.
Pick Sixty Trend Tips: Take the UNDER 47
SDQL System Says
When two conference foes who average 29-plus rushes per game hookup in the first few months of the season, play “Under” any total between 37 and 42. The record at SportsDatabase.com shows 5 overs and 12 unders in this spot (71-percent).
PACKERS at BEARS
Line: Green Bay -1.5 and O/U 51
Divisional road teams who turn the ball over once per game in back-to-back games have a 21-11-2 ATS (66-percent) record when the line is within +/-3 points of ‘Pick em’ and for all Chicago’s success on the road, they haven’t fared too well against this division foe at home. The Bears are a hurtin’ unit and this surly Packers squad, fresh off a loss to Detroit, is not what Chicago needs for a home coming present.
Pick Sixty Trend Tips: Take the Packers
SAINTS at COWBOYS
Line: New Orleans -3 and O/U 53.5
In three road starts against Dallas, QB Brees has three wins and he’s scored more than 30 points per game (35.3 avg). Say what you want about the Saints’ sketchy D – Dallas’ is worse. And Drew Brees is better than Tony Romo. And Sean Payton is a better coach than Jason Garrett. You get the picture. New Orleans was held in check by an average Minny D last week and with that first win out of the way, we are looking for New Orleans to find a rhythm. The Saints have Tampa Bay on-deck and their next divisional game after that isn’t until Week 9 at Carolina. This is one of the more winnable road games on Payton’s schedule and our numbers show the Saints scoring in the 28-30 point range; good enough for a cover vs. this crew.
Pick Sixty Trend Tips: Take the Saints