Trends with Benefits: Week 4 NFL Betting

Top trends and sports betting tips from Sunday’s late games around the league

The Andrew Luck injury caused some activity on the NFL odds this morning but in the afternoon games, online sportsbooks are holding steady with sides and totals everywhere other than Denver, where the opening total of 43.5 has sunk as low as 42 at the major outlets we track. It’s not the first time we’ve seen this in 2015; the Broncos’ Week 1 total vs. the Ravens dropped from 53 to 48.5 before Denver’s 19-13 win. That’s a big shift from the past two years, when the average Broncos total at home was 51 and the average final score equaled 59 points. It will be interesting to see what kind of gameplan Peyton Manning and Gary Kubiak roll out vs. a Vikings defense ranked 15th overall (12th vs. Pass; 23rd vs. Rush).

VIKINGS at BRONCOS

Line: Denver -6.5 and O/U 42

The Broncos are home this week from back-to-back road games and they have another two roadies on-deck before their Week 7 bye. When the total is more than O/U 44, this has been a decent spot for the under but the books are sharp on this lower total. It would seem like a good spot for Kubiak to lean on his run game but that’s tough to call with Manning.

Denver was one of eight teams who rushed for less than 75 yards last week and home faves of -7 or less in this spot are 1-5 O/U this season. The “Under” trend is running back as far as 2011 for these teams and the latest stretch is 6-16 O/U since midway through last year. Click this SDQL text for details: p:RY < 75 and HF and season >= 2011 and line >= -7 and date >= 20141102

Teams that can’t run the ball often have an explosive passing game and despite allegations of senility, Manning can still chuck it downfield. When faves of -3 to -10 in this spot that average 24-point points per game come home, they are 50-13-1 SU (79-percent) and averaging 28 PPG.  If the team has another road game on-deck, they are 26-6-1 in a 6-point teaser and if its non-conference, our home team is 12-3-1 (80-percent), going “Over” in a flat bet 12 of 16 times including a current streak of six-straight overs since 2013.

Denver’s Team Total is listed at 24.5 (even) so if you want to flat bet this game, there is a decent option. I’m going to recommend a six-point teaser with the Broncos to the Rams-Cardinals total. My power rating plays have the Cards winning big but I’ve been hesitant to lay that lumber. My Over/Under projections also show 47 total points in this game and a 6-point teaser gets me under the key number of 37.

Pick Sixty Trend Tips: 6-Point Teaser

Take the Broncos to ‘Pick’

Take the Rams at Cards OVER 36.5

Our primetime picks this season are 5-2-3 (sides and totals) and the best way to get them is by following @PickSixtySports on social media!