Top trends and sports betting tips from Sunday’s late games around the league
With the early NFL card underway we run through the rest of Sunday’s matchups and offer a couple of unique insights backed by powerful Sports Data Query Language.
ATLANTA at MIAMI
Line: Dolphins -3 and Over/Under: 45.5
The Fish are still available at -2.5 with a price at several online sportsbooks but if you like the dog in this game (and we do), shop around at find a cheap hook at Pinnacle Sports, 5 Dimes or Bet 365. The Falcons have allowed the third-most passing yards through two games (347 YPG) but they managed a split heading into their first non-conference game of the season.
Atlanta is 22-9-1 ATS against non-conference foes since 2005 and that includes a 14-5-1 ATS record since HC Mike Smith took over in 2008. Only 5 of those 20 games with Smith went over the total compared to 15 unders and Atlanta has outscored its AFC opponents 24.5 to 14.9. On the road, Atlanta is 7-3 SU/ATS and 1-9 O/U.
Trend Tips: Take the Falcons
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Note that Falcons RB Steven Jackson has been ruled out of today’s game in Miami
INDIANAPOLIS at SAN FRANCISCO
Line: Niners -10 and Over/Under: 46.5
This home date is sandwiched between divisional road games for Jim Harbaugh’s crew and you can bet they still have a nasty taste in their mouth following last Sunday’s 26-point beatdown in front of a national audience. The Niners are 14-0 ATS since 2008 in solo home games surrounded by road dates and although this seems like a lot of wood to chop, keep in mind that 13 of those 14 games resulted in a double-digit win for San Francisco straight-up.
JACKSONVILLE at SEATTLE
Line: Seahawks -18.5 and Over/Under: 40
Home faves of more than -14 points are 96-5 SU and 40-60-1 ATS since 1989 but you have to have a lot of courage to back this Jaguars team going into a rainy, cold Century Link Field. Non-conference home faves of this stature are 24-1 SU and 9-16 ATS with most of the winners posting at least 30 points, too, but big Non-conf home faves off a home divisional win (like the Hawks) are 6-0 SU but just 1-5 ATS.
BUFFALO at NEW YORK JETS
Line: Jets -2.5 and Over/Under: 41
The total on this game has seen a gameday run from 38.5 up to 41 which is a bit odd considering the 89-percent “action” rating the under throughout the week. The Bills are an attractive dog when coming off a close win (10-0 ATS) and that record improves to 19-0 ATS against non-division foes as long as Buffalo was able to score in the final 15 minutes of its last game.
– The Jets have lost 10-straight games against the spread after losing the turnover battle with -3 or more giveaways but still managing to cover the spread
New York is playing with extra rest following its Week 2 loss in New England on Thursday Night Football and while this has been a favorable spot the past five years, New York’s 30th ranked giveaway rating (-3.0 per game) makes them a risky play.