Trends with Benefits: Week 3 NFL Betting

Top trends and sports betting tips from Sunday’s late games around the league

 

With the early NFL card underway we run through the rest of Sunday’s matchups and offer a couple of unique insights backed by powerful Sports Data Query Language.

 

ATLANTA at MIAMI

Line: Dolphins -3 and Over/Under: 45.5

The Fish are still available at -2.5 with a price at several online sportsbooks but if you like the dog in this game (and we do), shop around at find a cheap hook at Pinnacle Sports, 5 Dimes or Bet 365. The Falcons have allowed the third-most passing yards through two games (347 YPG) but they managed a split heading into their first non-conference game of the season.

 

Atlanta is 22-9-1 ATS against non-conference foes since 2005 and that includes a 14-5-1 ATS record since HC Mike Smith took over in 2008. Only 5 of those 20 games with Smith went over the total compared to 15 unders and Atlanta has outscored its AFC opponents 24.5 to 14.9. On the road, Atlanta is 7-3 SU/ATS and 1-9 O/U.

Trend Tips: Take the Falcons

 

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Note that Falcons RB Steven Jackson has been ruled out of today’s game in Miami

 

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INDIANAPOLIS at SAN FRANCISCO

Line: Niners -10 and Over/Under: 46.5

This home date is sandwiched between divisional road games for Jim Harbaugh’s crew and you can bet they still have a nasty taste in their mouth following last Sunday’s 26-point beatdown in front of a national audience. The Niners are 14-0 ATS since 2008 in solo home games surrounded by road dates and although this seems like a lot of wood to chop, keep in mind that 13 of those 14 games resulted in a double-digit win for San Francisco straight-up.

 

Don’t miss our Pick Sixty CFL Best Bet for Week 13 on the BC Lions at Saskatchewan Roughriders!

 

JACKSONVILLE at SEATTLE

Line: Seahawks -18.5 and Over/Under: 40

Home faves of more than -14 points are 96-5 SU and 40-60-1 ATS since 1989 but you have to have a lot of courage to back this Jaguars team going into a rainy, cold Century Link Field. Non-conference home faves of this stature are 24-1 SU and 9-16 ATS with most of the winners posting at least 30 points, too, but big Non-conf home faves off a home divisional win (like the Hawks) are 6-0 SU but just 1-5 ATS.

 

BUFFALO at NEW YORK JETS

Line: Jets -2.5 and Over/Under: 41

The total on this game has seen a gameday run from 38.5 up to 41 which is a bit odd considering the 89-percent “action” rating the under throughout the week. The Bills are an attractive dog when coming off a close win (10-0 ATS) and that record improves to 19-0 ATS against non-division foes as long as Buffalo was able to score in the final 15 minutes of its last game.

 

– The Jets have lost 10-straight games against the spread after losing the turnover battle with -3 or more giveaways but still managing to cover the spread

 

New York is playing with extra rest following its Week 2 loss in New England on Thursday Night Football and while this has been a favorable spot the past five years, New York’s 30th ranked giveaway rating (-3.0 per game) makes them a risky play.

 

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