Trends with Benefits: Week 2 NFL Betting

Top trends and sports betting tips from Sunday’s late games including our picks from the Seattle Seahawks at San Diego Chargers

Our top trend play last week on the 49ers Team Total cashed and this week we’re taking a look at the setup for a couple of road faves.

SEAHAWKS at CHARGERS

Line: Seattle -5.5 and O/U 44

Hilton SuperContest Picks: Hawks (255) and Bolts (364)

The Seahawks are off a TNF home win over the Pack and they have a Super Bowl rematch on-deck at home vs. Denver, followed by an early bye week. Before this team found its new identity, Seattle was a terrible play in this spot, once losing 13-straight road games that immediately followed a home game. It started to turn around in 2011 and since then Seattle is 7-0 ATS against non-divisional opponents when playing on the road off a home game.

SDQL: team = Seahawks and A and p:H and NB and NDIV and season >= 2011

 

Seattle averaged 31.0 points per game (PPG) in those spots and they are playing with extra rest. San Diego is on a short week and that could limit them on D but according to our profile, the Chargers should still find a way to put some points on the board. Seattle’s non-Conference opponents since HC Pete Carroll took over average 22.6 PPG and when the Hawks are on the road that figure increases slightly to 23.6. Perhaps it has something to do with the defensive scheme; maybe the Hawks are saving their best stuff for divisional games? They’ve played over four-straight times in non-conference road games and we’ve got this total circled as our first pick.

Pick Sixty Trend Tips: Take the OVER

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TEXANS at RAIDERS

Line: Houston -3 and O/U 40

Hilton SuperContest Picks: Texans (189) and Raiders (158)

Houston drew a good card this year, opening at home against an inept Washington offense and then getting a short trip up to Oakland for a game against Week 1’s worst offense. As we mentioned in our SDQL System of the Week, teams who net less than 220 yards on offense in Week 1 (Oakland) are just 32-55-2 ATS (37-percent) in Week 2. We don’t have a lot of confidence in the Raiders scoring this game but we aren’t sure Houston is going to light things up either.

 

The Texans were a turnover machine last year and protecting the football became a focal point for Bill O’Brien’s new club. If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it could be the motto this week and as Houston looks for another win, we just don’t see them taking a lot of chances. Houston’s got a 2-7 O/U road record vs. losing clubs and though the D lost a rising star (Clowney), they still have plenty of playmakers to create havoc around Derek Carr. The field is never in perfect shape at Oakland this time of year and after getting outgained by more than 100 yards, Oakland has played under six consecutive times. These teams were both weak finishers last year and from what we’ve seen, the defense holds a distinct advantage over the offense for both sides. Grab the total at 40 points or more and bet this one under.

Pick Sixty Trend Tips: Take the UNDER

 

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