Our NFL trends feature focuses on a live betting strategy for Week 2 teams off a Week 1 win
When the nervous excitement of Week 1 settles into a more concentrated approach, handicappers need to consider which lines could be overcompensating for a team’s most recent outcome.
For the most part, NFL teams off a win are going to have a slightly shaded line by oddsmakers in the first place. In Week 2, this affect is often amplified some, especially for faves, but the truth is that we still don’t have a great feel for what this team is capable of.
During the preseason I came across some interesting stats for teams off a Week 1 win and with the help of Sports Database and SDQL, developed a trial system that relies on first-half results of the Week 2 games.
HALF-TIME ALERT! TEAMS OFF A WEEK 1 WIN
The first step in this system is to write down the 16 teams that won straight-up to start the season. Once those teams have been identified, we split them into two groups, faves and dogs.
Now we wait until half-time and watch for games going to the break with a scoring margin of three points or less. The pointspread before kickoff and the site (home/away), aren’t relative factors in this system. We’re just looking for close games and then noting the half-time pointspreads.
ACTION PLAN: FAVORITES
Faves off a Week 1 win that lead by three points or less at half-time in Week 2 are just 5-16-1 ATS in database history. My theory is when faves are unable to build a substantial lead in the first-half, it indicates that the dog has come ready to play. We’re going to be getting a second-half line similar to the one available at kick-off and the assumption is that these faves will suddenly be ready to break away, but the stats suggest otherwise.
ACTION PLAN: UNDERDOGS
If dogs are leading at the half, it’s another sign that they were more prepared than the betting public were giving them credit for and odds are good that they will be able to keep this game close enough to cover. The 11 dogs that fit this profile have gone 9-1-1 ATS and second-half scoring margins favor the dog 11.3 to 11.1. Final score averages are 23.2 to 21.1, again in favor of the dog, and if these dogs are leading by three or less at half-time you can bet that books will place a line of X (original fave) – Y (enough points for the original fave to comeback and win the game straight-up).
This is simply a theory on one way to potentially profit against the books number on games that have a proven record of starting and staying against the grain. It’s a very small sample of games , just 33 in total, but I like to look for angles like this and track their progress from the early going to see if small trends start to develop into larger patterns.
In Week 2, 2016, there were no potentially “live” games from the early card to track but I’ll be watching the late games along with Sunday Night Football and Monday Night Football to see if anything turns up. Follow @PickSixtySports for updates.
TREND FOR YOUR TROUBLES
There’s a chance this trend won’t even be “live” in 2016 and one thing I’ve learned is that if ain’t there, don’t force it. There is one system, however, that I know if “live” on two games today that have yet to kickoff: Seattle at Los Angeles and Green Bay at Minnesota
This angle is pretty basic. It’s used for the first-half of the year and as long as our road team is on normal rest (six days or less), the “Over” is on a huge 25-5-1 run. We’re looking for divisional road teams on normal rest (no byes), that have another division rival on-deck. Green Bay has the Lions up next while the Hawks will return home to face the Niners.
Current lines on those games show Hawks at Rams (O/U 38) and Green Bay at Minny (O/U 42).
These are decent totals and I’ve got additional info supporting each to go over, but not by much. The Rams do always play Seattle tough and with primetime, we should see a big night out of AP and A-Rod. For this week’s trend tips we’ll use a two-team, six-point teaser.
Pick Sixty Trend Tips: Take the Hawks-Rams OVER 32 to the Pack-Vikes OVER 36