Trends with Benefits: Week 2 NFL Betting

Top trends and sports betting tips from all three of Sunday’s late pro football games around the league!

It’s a small card today with just three games kicking off around 4 pm eastern so here are some NFL trends and systems relating to each matchup.


Line: Miami -6 and O/U 42

The Fish won an ugly one in Washington last week; Jacksonville lost its home opener vs. Carolina. It looks like another ‘building year’ for the Jags and they’ll have a hard time building anything with injuries to their O-Line, a rookie running back and Blake Bortles under center. In Week 2, home teams off a home game are only 6-10-1 ATS against foes that opened on the road and when the line is in this range, the home team’s record drops to 1-5 SU and 1-4-1 ATS.

Miami has a big divisional game next vs. Buffalo and we’ll look for more production this week out of the offense. The Dolphins have a statistical advantage over the Jags in three key categories I track for early season games (turnover margin, rushing yards per carry, completion percentage) and in this situation that’s led to a 15-3 ATS record on the road chalk.

Pick Sixty Trend Tips: Take the Dolphins


Line: Baltimore -4.5 and O/U 42

This line spiked to -6 or -6.5 on the fear that Derek Carr might miss but it looks like he’s going to slug it out. This game qualifies for a 64-percent double revenge system that was 3-0 ATS last year and 9-4 ATS the past three seasons (58-33-1 ATS overall),

Setup: Baltimore beat Oakland 55-20 in Week 10, 2012, in Baltimore and the previous meeting, Week 17, 2009, the Ravens won 21-13 in California.

When these games take place in the first 11 weeks of the season, the side and total (under) are each hitting around 80-percent (16-4 ATS and 4-15-1 O/U). Check the numbers yourself with this SDQL code from Sports Database: P:margin <= -28 and 3 >= season – P:season >= 2 and week<12 and PP:margin<=-7

Since 1997, the Ravens are a perfect 10-0 to the “Under” when playing on the road for a second-straight week against a non-divisional opponent with a divisional game on-deck.

Pick Sixty Trend Tips: Take the Ravens-Raiders UNDER


Line: Philadelphia -7 and O/U 54

Dallas’ defense will face a tough challenge this week with missing pieces on the pass rush and coverage. They are also down one of the game’s top receivers but seven points? The Cowboys are “live” in a solid ‘ATS margin’ system that is 62-percent since 2008, 10-1 ATS in the early season and 8-0 ATS with road dogs. Philly may end up winning this game but I’ll take the points on a Dallas team that doesn’t quit. 

Pick Sixty Trend Tips: Take the Cowboys

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