Top trends and sports betting tips from Sunday’s late games between the Broncos – Steelers and Bengals – 49ers
Pick Sixty’s top plays this week were from the Thursday nighter, Saturday game, early Sunday starts and then the late game between the Cards and Eagles. It doesn’t leave a lot of fun for the afternoon but after taking another look at the matchups we booked a two team, 6-point teaser worth booking.
Pick Sixty Trend Tips: Take the Bengals -.5 to the Steelers -.5
Note: Two team, 6-point teasers should cost you -110 in juice at most sportsbooks
Big Ben at home in this range is solid, especially in December (11-2 SU/ATS). The Steelers are on on my list of top HFA teams and the hot spot for these teams is -3 to -7. So far this year, they are 20-3 SU and 15-6-2 ATS, winning by an avg 10.4 PPG.
Check Ben Roethlisberger’s December record as a home fave with this Player SDQL from SportsDatabase.com: Ben Roethlisberger:PY > 0 and team = Steelers and H and -10 <= line <= -4 and month = 12
My concern over the Broncos is that they played well enough to win last week (out-yarded Oakland 310 to 126; 12 more first downs) — they just didn’t. That straight-up loss could be undervaluing them this week but Pittsburgh is not “just another team”, and Brock Osweiler is unproven.
There is a stat-system “live” on Denver that is 61-percent ATS the past 10 years and riding an 10-game ATS win streak since the start of 2013. The road teams are 7-0 ATS and Denver has arguably the best defense of all teams in this sample, but I give the coaching advantage here to Mike Tomlin and feel like the Steelers will find a way to earn this ‘W’.
Cincinnati is in San Francisco with AJ McCarron making his first start and the ATS line, which opened at -4, has been bet up to -6.5 online. The projected line with Andy Dalton was Cinci -7 so it seems like most bettors are comfortable with McCarron, but I think this is just as much a play AGAINST Blaine Gabbert.
The Niners QB has been sacked 13 times in the past two weeks and home dogs off a loss that can’t protect their QB only win 25-percent of their games. The scoring average in this type of contest is 24-16 in favor of the visitor and for my money, I’ll be surprised if the Niners get past 17 points today.
It’s a long trip out to the West coast for Cinci but the D has got to stand up and prove they can win this type of game when called upon.
The Pick Sixty Power Rating system for betting totals is off to a strong start this week and “live” on two more games this afternoon. Read about the system in Totally Covered (Week 13), get the full list of free picks here, and consider these two plays later today:
Bengals at Niners Over 40.5
Browns at Seahawks Over 43