Trends with Benefits: Week 15 NFL Betting

Advice on a wagering strategy plus top trends, a system from the Vikings at Lions and betting tips for the Dolphins at Patriots matchup!

Knowing when to pull the trigger on a NFL bet is an instinctual part of the handicapping process. Shopping around early in the week makes sense and you can often find some nice value on a play before the betting public starts jumping on board. The drawbacks for booking a play too early are that A) You may not be aware of all the vital information (I.E. Injuries) and B) You can end up front loading a card, leaving you with a dilemma for later in the week when you find other plays fitting your criteria.

That brings up the age-old question: How many NFL bets should a player make on any given Sunday?

Some will argue that three bets is enough and others will stack their card with multi-unit wagers, parlays and teasers, making sure that all the primetime games are covered. And then of course there’s the story of the sharp, professional bettor who only makes three to five bets per season but each play is in the five-digit range. Those legends may be true but for the recreational bettor, three to five bets per season is not a lot of fun.

What works for one bettor may not work for another. As long as you practice some form of money management and find a system that gives you a reasonable expectation to profit, you are on the right track. Do your homework, watch line moves and make sure you have at least two or three online sports betting outlets to take advantage of line discrepancies when it comes time to pull the trigger.

Remember the betting adage: This is a marathon, not a sprint. Slow and steady often wins the race.

Good luck today.

VIKINGS at LIONS

The Minnesota Vikings are “live” today in our rookie head coaching system that’s 17-7 ATS, featured in the ‘Week 15 Totally Covered’. We also have an Over/Under system live on this game that has only gone over five times in the last 33 games (85-percent UNDER). Each of these teams has done a good job protecting the football this season and when two low turnover teams hookup late in the year, the low total usually tells us what to expect.

Trend Tips: Take the UNDER 42.5

CONSIDER THIS

Bill Belichick is 11-1 ATS with same season revenge since taking over the head coaching job in New England but the Pats are a huge public favorite this week, evidenced by the line move from -7.5 up to -9.5 the past few days. The recent record for touchdown-plus underdogs who are getting less than 20-percent attention from the market is 37-14 ATS, according to a report from Sports Insights.

The first-half line on this game has also moved from New England -4.5 up to -6 and the current total has peaked at O/U 49. The Dolphins are a slower starting team and we only have them getting to 17 points on the day. According our NOSE system featured in ‘Totally Covered: Week 11 NFL Picks’ the best value on this game comes in the first-half and we left Miami’s offense out of the picture completely.

Pick: Take the Patriots Team Total OVER 14.5 (-120) in the first-half

Don’t miss Pick Sixty’s Power Rating predictions – they are 21-6 ATS! Watch for our Sunday Night Football picks later today