Trends with Benefits: Week 14 NFL Betting

Top trends and sports betting tips from Sunday’s game between the Kansas City Chiefs and Arizona Cardinals. We also have a Team Total to consider from the Sunday nighter between the New England Patriots and San Diego Chargers

Week 14 is well underway and the of the six home teams on today’s NFL betting lineup, the common thread between each and every one of these teams is that their head coach is either inexperienced or relatively new to this team.

The first-year, ‘True Rooks’ in the early games are Cleveland’s Mike Pettine and Washington’s Jay Gruden and of course we have the first-year vet Ken Whisenhunt calling the shots on Tennessee. It’s only half-time in the Volunteer State but it looks as the crusty old vet Tom Coughlin and Eli Manning are getting the better of Whiz and his prodigy, Zach Mettenberger.

The other home dogs on today’s docket are Tony Sparano (Oakland), Gus Bradley (Jacksonville) and Mike McCoy (San Diego). Time will tell whether Sparano maintains his position though the off-season but with Bradley and McCoy it looks like the future is bright.

We’ve been tracking individual records for first- and second-year head coaches for years, noting similarities and trying to develop systems and depending on the Week 15 odds, we may a few plays to consider on some road dogs next week. It’s an angle that is 17-7 ATS (71-percent) the past couple years and its ghosting “live” on the Raiders, Texans, Redskins and Vikings. Check updates @PickSixtySports throughout the week for more details.


Our first instinct on this game was to bet the Chiefs at ‘Pick em’. KC lost a short week, look-ahead road game in rainy Oakland and then they came home and got stuffed and stymied by Peyton and the Broncos D. KC will likely get its offense moving in baby steps this game with Charles getting plenty of work but Arizona’s defense is capable of limiting the Chiefs to 17-20 points.

We cited an Over/Under betting system in our ‘NFL Non-Conference Betting Trends’ feature earlier in the week but wanted to wait on this game to see how healthy Cards’ WR Larry Fitzgerald was looking. Even if Fitz dresses, he doesn’t look to be a big part of the Cardinals gameplan and that’s a huge advantage for the Chiefs. The Cards are 1-6 SU in games where Fitzgerald doesn’t make at least one reception and 0-8-1 O/U their last nine games as a dog of +3 points or less.

Arizona’s running black platoon reeks of desperation with Stepfan Taylor starting and Marion Grice getting a share of carries in his pro debut. Andy Reid and Alex Smith have decent track records indoors and in Smith’s last 17 starts against a solid defensive team who struggles offensively he is 6-11 O/U when the total is between 37 and 47. Access that SDQL football profile at!

Pick Sixty Trend Tips: Take the Chiefs and Cardinals UNDER 20.5 in the first-half


We have three plays booked from the Seattle Seahawks and Philadelphia Eagles game that goes at 4:25 pm ET as well as an Over/Under pick from Buffalo at Denver OVER 47 points. For the Sunday nighter we were leaning to the Pats -3.5 and the OVER 51.5 but the cost of buying those plays down to the key number was too expensive so we ended up playing a team total instead. Take the Patriots OVER 27 (-115)

Read this week’s edition of Totally Covered for the Pick Sixty Sports Power Rating plays of Week 14!